The John Batchelor Show

June 14, 2012

Air Date: 
June 14, 2012

Thursday 905P Eastern Time:  McKay Coppins, Buzzfeed, and David Drucker, Roll Call, in re: Mr Obama's 54-minute speech today; Mr Romney's 19-minute speech

Trucks outside of a starch factory. Caribou, Aroostook County, Maine, October 1940. Reproduction from color slide. Photo by Jack Delano. Prints and Photographs Division, Library of Congress.j
 
Thursday 920P Eastern Time:  Tim Wilson, Director of Climate Change Policy & the IP and Free Trade Unit, Institute of Public Affairs, Melbourne, i re: infant ruled to have been taken by a dingo in the outback (Northern Territory), rather than court ruling that the parents had murdered the child. Mother released from prison. Dingo is sort of aggressive version of a wild fox/dog.   Australia is the only OECD economy that didn't go into recession. "The rich parts are doing well enough or strongly, then other sectors that are not. In the 1980s and '90s, we liberalized our economy [i.e., focussed on market forces] so we're more resilient."
 
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(CBS/AP) CANBERRA, Australia - Thirty-two years after 9-week-old Azaria Chamberlain vanished from her parents' tent at a campsite in the Australian desert, a coroner finally concluded Tuesday that a dingo, or wild dog, had taken the infant.  That is what her parents, Lindy Chamberlain-Creighton and Michael Chamberlain, had maintained from the beginning.  "We're relieved and delighted to come to the end of this saga," a tearful but smiling Chamberlain-Creighton, since divorced and remarried, told reporters outside the court.  The first inquest in 1981 had also blamed a dingo. But a second inquest a year later charged Chamberlain-Creighton with murder and her husband with being an accessory after the fact. She was convicted and served more than three years in prison before that decision was overturned. A third inquest in 1995 left the cause of death open.  The case became famous internationally through the 1988 movie "A Cry in the Dark," in which Meryl Streep played the mother.  No similar dingo attack had been documented at the time, but in recent years the wild dogs native to Australia have been blamed for three fatal attacks on children. Few doubt the couple's story today, but the latest inquest - which the family had fought to get - made it official that Azaria was killed in a dingo attack.  Coroner Elizabeth Morris said she was "satisfied that the evidence is sufficiently adequate, clear, cogent and exact and that the evidence excludes all other reasonable possibilities."  "This has been a terrifying battle, bitter at times, but now some healing and a chance to put our daughter's spirit to rest," Michael Chamberlain told reporters.
 
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Thursday 935P Eastern Time:  Eric Trager, Washington Institute, and Sam Tadros, Georgetown University, in re: Egypt: soft coup in the last 48 hours. Army has made its move.   Supreme Court has disenfranchised everyone; Shafiq is allowed to continue. 
 
Court: two decisions - one, under parliamentary law, one-third for political independents.; military accepts parties taking 100%  of the seats. As a result, that was ruled illegal and the entire parliament has been disenfranchised. 
 
Coup or soft coup? Depends on where you stand.  However, the jerry-rigged law was, in fact, unconstitutional, so the ruling as absolutely correct, and Shafiq has to be allowed to run.  This is not the first time the constitutional court has used the same reasoning; also in 1984 and 1987; in both instances, court dissolved parliament then. Until now, ruling not yet enforce and parliament has not been dissolved, awaits the military declaring it so.
 
If you don't have a parliament, you don't have a constitution-writing body. Fears that the military will [make declarations. This supreme court was apptd by Mubarak, which raises questions now.  
 
The MB has accepted Safiq; will wait to see what its next move is. Have been cornered today; one year later, they control nothing: haven't written constitution, their parliament is dissolved, they have nada.  
 
Rumors: concerning Islamists in genl, Qataris said to be financially behind MB, Saudis behind Salafis.  That MB negotiates w military: if Shafiq wins, MB will have the Cabinet. Otherwise, might lead mass protests.
 
People assumed that every youth in Tahrir Square who wasn't bearded was a John Stuart Mill.   Now we see more anarchists emerging, a generalized radicalization of some of the young people.
 
Thursday 950P Eastern Time:  Nan Hayworth and Mary Kissel, in re:  the economy and the president's economic policies. Last week in Wisconsin: an impassioned push buy the public-sector unions to show that the Wisconsin middle class was being gravely harmed by Gov Walker, but they then selected Gov Walker again by a larger margin than before.  Several months ago, Gov Romney in Nevada said We have to let this thing [clear out] and allow people to lose homes that they simply cannot afford. Let the price find a bottom; then we'll se a rebound.  The president, however wants to bail out people who can afford heir homes; a massive misallocation of assets would ensue.
 
Thursday 1005P (705P Pacific Time): Malcolm Hoenlein, in re:  soft coup in Egypt in the last 24 hours.   court  invalidated the parliament's directive to allocate the one-third of the seats that were supposed to have go to independents. Deal now: might give PM position to MB.  Anti-Shafiq demonstrations. SCAF (Supreme Council of the Armed Forces) has been in charge of Egypt for seventy years.   Avoids being blatant so as to avoid sending voters into the arms of the Muslim Brotherhood.  SCAF controls [is remunerated to the tune of] about one-third of the Egyptian economy; will not allow itself to be marginalized.   Mrs Clinton said: "Russia is gun-running onto Syria, major weapons systems."  Attack helos have upset everyone; used against civilians. Lavrov accuses the US of gun-running to the Free Syrian Army via cutouts   Cold War.  Saudis and Kuwaitis and others providing ore and more weapons, to ever-larger sectors of he population. Use of attack helos says that the govt is preparing for mass casualties. The West has no plan to stop the murders. Syria ahas missiles w 700-mi range and chem-bio weapons.  
 
Thursday 1020P (720P Pacific Time):  Patrick Clawson, Director of research, Washington Institute, the Iran Security Initiative, in re:  Moscow is extremely eager to have the upcoming P5+1 talks inMoscow be successful. Not yet been able to have all parties agree on agenda. Hollande said he would note change policy, has taken a tougher position than the US has on Syria, hold that the US and Russian Syrian policies are too soft. Eke anent sanctions on Iran: Europeans have written stiff regs that can't be changed unless all 27 EU members agree.  Russians want Iran to be treated with respect, as a great power. Most nations not willing to do that. P5+1 confrontation can continue while Iran continues its nuclear dvpt. Hope hope hope.
 
Thursday 1035P (735P Pacific Time):   Michael Makovsky, Foreign Policy Director, Bipartisan Policy Center, in re: Iran regime's brutality. Its aggression in nuclear weapons program. Best chance of having Iranians negotiate in good faith is for them to fear that their nuclear facilities will be attacked. Obama administration now faces: if it offers too much to Iran, will be criticized by Romney; on the other hand, don't want addtl economic disruptions.  Moscow: connection between Syria and Iran, wd impact Iran's strategic position, but Russian position on Iran not much influenced by Syria. Daily new reports of increased involvement of Russia in arms to Syria. Putin will stay with Assad till the last moment, then maybe switch.  The fact that that antagonizes the US is positive.
 
Thursday 1050P (750P Pacific Time): Malcolm Hoenlein, in re:  UNESCO, conference in S Petersburg on 24 June: preliminary report on Dome of the Rock renovations, on the Temple Mount. Mosque-building as a way to remove control from locals, incl Israel, and transfer it to UNESCO. Vast mosque was being blt undergound. Several parallel things happening, have to be understood as potential flashpoints that could set of Moslem extremists around the world. Palestinian Authority was admitted to UNESCO by a narrow vote, and thereby automatically removed US funding from UNESCO. Claimed Church of the Nativity be listed as a Palestinian heritage site and needed an emergency procedure to "save" it. UN said, No justification for this. (Mirabile dictu, this is the same UN that has elected Syria to its Human Rights Committee.)  Palestinians pursuing this potentially dangerous road - religious implications, potential for violence - PA resolution wd have become a focal point in St Petersburg, but was rejected.  
 
Temple Mount being desecrated under control of the Waqf, which is controlled by Jordan.  In fact, has been being desecrated since ancient times. Fight among many countries, incl Jordan and Morocco and Saudis, as to who legitimately controls the place, since all three kings claim descent from the Prophet or equal validity.
 
Palestinian Authority in desperate financial straits; has borrowed $300 mil from Palestinian banks in the last few months and killed its borrowing capacity.
 
Thursday 1105P (805P Pacific Time):  Walter Russell Mead, Professor of foreign affairs and humanities at Bard College. Editor-at-Large of The American Interest magazine, formerly Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. His blog, Via Meadia, appears at the American Interest Onlinel; in re: CNN report that the US military has completed plans for Syria. Probably to clarify to Syria that the US is focussed, and to raise the temperature. US has troops on the ground in Jordan.  Ten thousand troops, 15 countries, in Jordan in mil exercise, preparing to take over sites with chemical weapons.  Supporting & providing intel assistance to Syrian rebels.  Pottery Barn rule in Syria: You break it, it's yours.  However, power among rebels may pass to more [extreme] members. 
 
Kremlin remembers Libya, American lie about NATO's not sending in air power; Russians also have historical perspective: Christian minority in Syria, recall the destruction of Christian community in Iraq.  Russia is more afraid of the Sunni surge, incl Gulfies and Turks, as possibly arming Chechnya or Dagestan. Russian committed massacres in Chechnya with o protest in the Muslim world.  Wide gap between the exiled Syrian movement and the forces on the ground. Some of the Saudis sending money are heavily Wahhabist and probably send it to groups they find congenial. Both Russians and Americans fear Syria falling into the mess where LEbanon is - a sort of Greater Lebanon - and take opposite positions to avoid this.  Sectarian conflict has been sputtering on for twenty years, can become a Crescent of Chaos from Basra to Beirut. Then, Jordan's security will be a major issue.  Caveat - Some of the Sunni funds going into Iraq.  Saudis hell-bent on settling old scores with Assad. Stepping up support for opposition: weapons and money. Competition between Saudis and Turks for leadership of Sunni cause goes back to Ottoman days, when Saudis on the peninsula were fighting Ottoman forces. Still trying to obviate bits of Turkish influence from Mecca. 
 
Thursday 1120P (820P Pacific Time): Malcolm Hoenlein, in re:  Israelis often follow American politics more closely than many Americans do. Not much known about Romney. This Administration got off on a bad foot in its first year with its demand for a settlement freeze; president since has acknowledged that he overestimated Abbas's capacity to make peace, but has visited Egypt but not Israel.  Israeli poll:  22% favored Obama, 29% favored Obama, the rest said they don't know.  Israelis committed to the US, feeling that their future is intertwined with the US.
 
Thursday 1135P (835P Pacific Time):  Fouad Ajami, Council on Foreign Relations, in re:  Mazen the father of a Dream, wherein he sees perhaps the funeral of a leader or a coup d'etat.  Tells a friend of the dream, which was quite vague and unclear. Friend is later seized tortured by the Mahabbarat, told them of the dream; Mazen was imprisoned and tortured for years - all in Syria.  This all took place in Syria. Damascus, Aleppo, Homs, Homa and _ dominated Syrian history; Ottoman Empire relied on these cities, who's religious life was controlled by urban elites.  French came in, decided to divide and conquer so turned to the Alawi, who were very poor and powerless, and lifted them up into power; then the Alawi took over the country.  Rebellions in 1963, '66, '67, '70 - more brutal each subsequent rebellion. Hafez al Assad took over with enormous brutality and skill.
 
Thursday 1150P (850P Pacific Time):  continued.  Are Alawis Muslims? Dodge the question. Hafez al Assad got a fatwa from an emir saying yes; however, one has to search evidence on this.  One of Assad's brother deliberately murdered tens of thousands of people in Homs. In 1979, beginning of a new century in Islam, a rebellion broke out n Aleppo - merchants in bazaar arose against eh regime. lost, and the brutality heaped on ALeppo was monstruous, then to Hama. The man who did the violence was Rifaq al Assad, younger brother: "I'll kill a million Syrians to further the cause of the revolution [the entrenchment of the Assad family].    Assassination of Rifaq Hariri on 14 February.  Fouad knew him; he ran afoul of the  young ruler, Bashir. UN resolution called on all forces, incl Syria, to withdraw from Lebanon; Bashir decided it was Rifaq Hariri's fault and so a massive car bomb blew up Hariri in Beirut.  Iran has invested huge amts of money and personnel into Syria, and to their proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon. Lebanon is he site of a proxy war between Sunni and Shia.  Turkey: PKK is a control on Ankara. Turkey is ow active in Arab affairs. The old Ataturk republic wanted nothing to do with regions south, but now Turks feel a destiny there. Egypt on its knees; many other places in parlous condition. Long border with Syria, twenty thousand refugees in Turkey. Sunni 75% of population in Syria; Christians 10%, Alawis ---% - plus the very independent Druze.
 
Thursday/Fri 1205A (905 Pacific Time): Sebastian Gorka, FDD, in re: five natl security threats needing strategic answers.
 
Thursday/Fri  1220A (920 Pacific Time):   James Taranto, WSJ, inre: nuanced complexity of Obama messaging; falling behind in North Carolina.
 
Thursday/Fri  1235A (935P Pacific Time):  Eric Trager, Washington Institute, and Sam Tadros, Georgetown University, in re: Egypt: soft coup in the last 48 hours. Army has made its move.   Supreme Court has disenfranchised everyone; Shafiq is allowed to continue.   
 
Court: two decisions - one, under parliamentary law, one-third for political independents.; military accepts parties taking 100%  of the seats. As a result, that was ruled illegal and the entire parliament has been disenfranchised.   
 
Coup or soft coup? Depends on where you stand.  However, the jerry-rigged law was, in fact, unconstitutional. so the ruling as absolutely correct, and Shafiq has to be allowed to run.  This is not the first time the constitutional court has used the same reasoning; also in 1984 and 1987; in both instances, court dissolved parliament then. Until now, ruling not yet enforce and parliament has not been dissolved, awaits the military declaring it so.  
 
If you don't have a parliament, you don't have a constitution-writing body. Fears that the military will [make declarations. This supreme court was apptd by Mubarak, which raises questions now.  
 
The MB has accepted Safiq; will wait to see what its next move is. Have been cornered today; one year later, they control nothing: haven't written constitution, their parliament is dissolved, they have nada.    
 
Rumors: concerning Islamists in genl, Qataris said to be financially behind MB, Saudis behind Salafis.  That MB negotiates w military: if Shafiq wins, MB will have the Cabinet. Otherwise, might lead mass protests.  
 
People assumed that every youth in Tahrir Square who wasn't bearded was a John Stuart Mill.   Now we see more anarchists emerging, a generalized radicalization of some of the young people.
 
Thursday/Fri  1250A  (950P Pacific Time):  Bret Stephens, WSJ, in re:  Obama blame-shifts 
 
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Music
 
Hour 1
O Brother, Where Art Thou? by Various Artists
Mad Max: Beyond Thunderdome by Maurice Jarre
The Mummy Returns by Alan Silvestri
The Shawshank Redemption by Thomas Newman
 
Hour 2
Spartacus by Joseph Lo Duca
 
Hour 3
Season of the Witch by Atli Orvarsson
Immortals by Trevor Morris
 
Hour 4
Assassin's Creed by Jesper Kyd
John Carter by Michael Giacchino