The John Batchelor Show

Monday 1 October

Air Date: 
October 01, 2018

Image: Sino-Persian relations (Chinese: 中国-波斯关系 [Chung-kuo-Puo-hsi kuan-hsi], Persian: روابط ایران و چین) refers to the historic diplomatic, cultural and economic relations between the cultures of China proper and the Persian empire over its greatest extent, dating back to ancient times, since at least 200 B.C.
“Greater Iran” is a controversial term sometimes used to refer to the regions of the Caucasus, West Asia, Central Asia, and parts of South Asia that have significant Iranian cultural influence. The argument is made that the idea of Greater Iran was first promoted by the Pan-Iranist ultra-nationalist party of Pahlavi in the mid-1940s, an extension of the Nazi ideology that caused the abdication of Reza Shah following his support for Nazi Germany.
Co-host: Thaddeus McCotter, WJR, the Great Voice of the Great Lakes
Hour One
Monday 1 October 2018 / Hour 1, Block A: Tom Joscelyn, Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies; & Senior Editor for FDD's Long War Journal; and Bill Roggio, Long War Journal and FDD; in re: Jalaladin Haqqani, Afghan jihadi: dead, but his network is still very much alive. Pakistanis began to send much help to him under Soviets.  No data at all saying ht bin Laden worked w CIA, but Haqqani did: incubated the organization that became so difficult to the US.  US was giving Stinger missiles to Haqqani while he brought in Arab fighters.  His son, SIraj, is in charge now and very much an al Qaeda man Charlie Wilson’s part with the Haqqani network: Wilson loved Haqqani (where Wilson badly misunderstood who he was dealing with). The book, The Main Enemy, recounts the war against the Soviets.  Let the lessons from the mujahedeen be a warning. 
Somalia: Shabaab targets Italian troops in Mogadishu with suicide bombing
THREAT MATRIX   Earlier today, Shabaab, al Qaeda’s branch in East Africa, attacked an Italian military convoy in Mogadishu with a suicide car bombing. Two people, both civilians, were reported killed in the blast. Today’s suicide bombing is one of, if not the first, attack of its kind on European troops in Somalia. . . . Partnering with African forces and others doesn't work out; they lack the esprit de corps of al Shebaab.  Black Hawk Down
      Al Qaeda in East Africa:  34 US strikes – 31 vs Shebaab
Monday 1 October 2018 / Hour 1, Block B: Tom Joscelyn, Long War Journal and FDD; and Bill Roggio, Long War Journal and FDD; in re: Mogadishu 25 years ago today. Somalia: Shabaab targets Italian troops in Mogadishu with suicide bombing THREAT MATRIX   An Italian unit, European troops: Iran struck Syrians with missiles, acknowledging that th Ahvaz attacks were from ISIS. . . Ahvaz attacks
Monday 1 October 2018 / Hour 1, Block C:  Gordon Chang, Daily Beast, explains Sunday’s incident with the Decatur in an East Asian freedom of navigation operation; it was was approached at 45 yards from its bow by a PLA navy destroyer that played chicken with “increasingly aggressive manoeuvers,” then demanded that the Decatur depart the area. Decatur, an Arleigh Burke-class ship, maneuvered to prevent a collision.  Chinese have often been reckless in the past.  After this dangerous manoeuver, Chinese said Secy Mattis’s counterpart was no longer available, and the US cancelled his trip to China.  GGC:  In the past, the US has always been hesitant to call the Chinese out. Oftentimes, these incidents were covered up.  We effectively taught the Chinese we were afraid of offending them, so of course they got more reckless. . . . Really dangerous, coming within 45 yards of a destroyer.  We're in a dangerous period where the Chinese may miscalculate.  We’re now unteaching China lessons. We can assign balms to political leaders and presidents, but also to senior members of the Navy.
Because they don't yet know how serious we are, they'll [eventually] quit testing us, but for the moment this is a very dangerous phase.  Does China have sustaining power? Can concentrate their naval assets in a much smaller part of the world than we can; still, they’re not as well trained as we are – but “quantity is quality.”  There are a lot of arrogant flag officers in China: they have new eqpt, think the US is in a terminal decline, and Xi may think he has a closing window in which to deal with us. Chinese Ministry of Defense claims that he US violated their sovereignty even though Vietnam and Philippines also claim that space.  PACOM or Chief of Naval Operations probably designates freedom of navigation operations.  Chinese no longer are talking mil to mil; they're acting like children in a temper tantrum. We can repair this relationship, but we’ve looked desperate in the past and must not repeat that. I think relations will be good in the important sense that by standing strong, we’ll get what we want.
..  ..  ..
The U.S. Navy destroyer USS Decatur had to maneuver to avoid a collision on Sunday after a Chinese warship came within 45 yards of its bow as the American ship transited a disputed island chain in the South China Sea on Sunday, U.S. defense officials said. The close encounter that the U.S. Navy characterized as "unsafe and unprofessional" comes at a time of heightened tensions between the United States and China.
Monday 1 October 2018 / Hour 1, Block D:  Alan Tonelson, RealityCheck blog; in re: Trade, USMCA. Typical for trade deals: come to some conclusion at the eleventh hour or later – a high-stakes poker game. At some point, one side decides it can’t afford to have no deal, at all. A triumph for Pres Trump, but this may be as ineffective as the old agreement in providing incentives to bring mfg back to the US. What this does is undercut the momentum for a Canada-China trade deal.  Of all the traders, the Chinese are he worst; put the US in front of a big coalition against China.
I don’t see a big coalition; many say that they got such rough treatment from Pres Trump that they’ll never again let one country [absorb] so much of their trade.
In USMCA, the main changes are in automotive trade. The UK wants a deal with Canada right away and are glad for the USMCA.
Pres Trump has never said to the UK: “Once you’re out of the EU, we’ll trade with you and take care of you.”
Hour Two
Monday 1 October 2018 / Hour 2, Block A:  David M Drucker, Washington Examiner, & John Fund, NRO, in re: The 2018 midterm elections; Supreme Court imbroglio.  Economy: 4.2% ; and a tentative deal (needs Congressional approval): USMCA – following through on 2016 campaign promises. Pharmaceuticals, agriculture.  Kavanaugh story goes up and down.  DMD: I think House GOP is in a lot of trouble.  . . .  “This feels a lot like 2006 – what losing looks like.”  But GOP may gain seats.   . . .  Thaddeus McCotter: In ’06 the economy wasn’t doing well; Iraq; war and peace not playing well among the electorate.  Foley, Florida, had concealed his bad actions toward House pages; was gone; became a scandal.  Leadership’s concealment was inexcusable.  . . . Kavanaugh could increase Republican or Democratic voting.  . . .  If Democrats are seen to have overstepped the bounds of decency, that could help the GOP.
Monday 1 October 2018 / Hour 2, Block B:  John Fund, NRO, & David M Drucker, Washington Examiner, in re: Rod Rosenstein, part of the institutional memory of the Department of Justice; he spoke intemperately of the president and the 25th Amendment;  he is Russiagate. . .
Did Rod Rosenstein get demoted in cableland? Apparently so.  . .. Issues: healthcare; seizure of the children at the border; Trump Trump Trump.
Monday 1 October 2018 / Hour 2, Block C:  Veronique de Rugy, Mercatus Center, in re:  USMCA
Monday 1 October 2018 / Hour 2, Block D:  Monica Crowley, London Center for Policy Research, in re: Rod Rosenstein
Hour Three
Monday 1 October 2018/ Hour 3, Block A: Francis Rose, WJLA in Washington, D.C., concerning the fact that the president has signed a Defense Appropriati0ns Bill. This is the first time in ten years Congress has passed a DoD appropriations bill in time for the beginning of the fiscal year on October 1. The Defense Dept and VA and HHS and Labor have fully appropriated budgets for the e entire fiscal year starting today; a rarity; $200 bil for the VA – let’s spend it. In Mar-a-Lago: there was a flap about the new Secy of the VA, Robert Willkie . . . 
Monday 1 October 2018/ Hour 3, Block B: Andrew C McCarthy,  , in re: 
Monday 1 October 2018/ Hour 3, Block C: Simon Constable, in Edinburgh (@RealConstable), in re:  Lots of London gossip about the Tories’s annual meeting: Brexit, yes or no?  Most favor, but an adamant minority opposes.
What’s the key sticking point is the Northern Irish border, dating  back to the Troubles.  Nicola Sturgeon, Scottish First Minister, is looking for a special deal for the Irish, so perhaps Scotland can have that, too. Scotland is very pro-Europe.  . . .  The US economy is booming; the European economy is limping.  Everybody knows this and has bet on the US dollar, where factories are being built.  Harbinger of a reverse, so be long the euro; a brutally tricky market to get right. 
JB: Euro and pound are in retreat.
SC: The plunge in the pound is due to Brexit; in the euro, is that the whole eurozone economy is slow-growing – France and Germany are half the eurozone.   A bilateral deal between the UK and the US would be extremely welcome in Parliament. 
Monday 1 October 2018/ Hour 3, Block D: Lee Smith, RealClearInvstigations, in re: JB: Rod Rosenstein: the president of the United States will meet with him — but not yet. He’s at the center of Russiagate. He also was quoted in the New York Times as saying he’d wear a wire and invoke the 25th Amendment.
LS:  25th Amendment and a wire? President had trust in Rod Rosenstein; that’s no longer there. His eyes were opened. Once he declassifies the documents, I’m convinced he’ll be even more aware of things the Deputy Atty General has been up to.
Hour Four
Monday 1 October 2018/ Hour 4, Block A: Jerry Hendrix, NRO; Telemus Group VP; was Senior Fellow and Director of the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security); retired Captain in the United States Navy, whose staff assignments included tours with the Chief of Naval Operation’s Executive Panel. @JerryHendrixII; in re: Navy ships & air wings
Monday 1 October 2018/ Hour 4, Block B: Jerry Hendrix, NRO; Telemus Group VP, in re: Navy ships & air wings
Monday 1 October 2018/ Hour 4, Block C: The Zimmermann Telegram: Intelligence, Diplomacy, and America’s Entry into World War I, by Thomas Boghardt
Monday 1 October 2018/ Hour 4, Block D:  The Zimmermann Telegram: Intelligence, Diplomacy, and America’s Entry into World War I, by Thomas Boghardt
..  ..  ..