Painting, left: Signing of the Peace of Westphalia (Westfälischer Friede), a series of peace treaties signed between May and October 1648 in Osnabrück and Münster. These treaties ended the Thirty Years' War (1618–1648) in the Holy Roman Empire, and the Eighty Years' War (1568–1648) between Spain and the Dutch Republic, with Spain formally recognizing the independence of the Dutch Republic.  The treaties did not restore peace throughout Europe, but they did create a basis for national self-determination.
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-host: Thaddeus McCotter, WJR, the Great Voice of the Great Lakes
 
Hour One
Monday  21 September 2015 / Hour 1, Block A: Tom Joscelyn, Long War Journal & FDD; Bill Roggio, Long War Journal & FDD; in re:  Soraya al Khorasani, has a Da'ish-style raining camp, after Gen Hamid Teqabi, killed in Iraq as an advisor to Soraya al Khorasani. Receiving support from the US via airstrikes (and funding?). Merger of Iranian war-fighting with nascent [US] war-fighting.  Nicely clad and carrying US M16-A1s.  The chef exporter fo terrpor in the Middle East is Iran; now [owns]much of Iraq.    Al Nusrah Front, to the east of Syria, strikes two Shia town in Idlib Province. Zabadani, a small city – Bashar al Assad's forces; . . .  Al Nusrah: has 20-25,000 fighters currently (this is al Q in Syria).  . . . Chechens in Latakia; an RFL report: they're actually al Qaeda, not ISIS, although Russian news in accurately says they're ISIS.  This is the Chechen war moved to western Syria.  One fellow leading one of the Chechen brigades was trained by Chechen leaders in the Caucasus; has pedigree.
- The Al Nusrah Front, Ahrar al Sham, Jund al Aqsa, and the Turkistan Islamic Party have launched significant operations targeting two Shiite villages in the Idlib province of Syria. Their attacks are a response to the siege of Zabadani, a southern Syrian city, by Bashar al Assad's regime and its allies.
- The strike took place in an area in Paksitan's tribal agency of South Waziristan that is administered by Sajna Mehsud, who heads a splinter faction that broke away from the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan (TTP) in May 2014.
Monday  21 September 2015 / Hour 1, Block B: Tom Joscelyn, Long War Journal & FDD; Bill Roggio, Long War Journal & FDD; in re: CIA strikes in Pakistan?  - minimal coordination with CENTCOM – supposed to be on al Q leaders who pose an imminent threat to the US – those on the road to defeat, according to White House. We do kill a lot of low-level al Q leaders. Looks as though we detect some kind of activity, launch a strike, and hope and pray they kill whom they intended.  There's no strategy here. Just killing those guys, then say that the optics are good, The irony is hat this mode of Counterterrorism, carried over to Iraq and Syria, hasn't worked there, either. It does recruit for the Taliban: a strike at Peshawar led to a huge photo of commanders' gathering aggrieved families of the unintentionally killed.  US intell is not as good as claimed. These are insurgencies, not network terrorists. There do exist complex groups: Khalifa Umma Mansour, Peshawar: directed 2014 Dec attack killed well over 100 Pakistani high school students. . . . Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia – flyers and pamphlets circulating in Iraq, claiming to be better than ISIS, and as heirs to Zarqawi (whom ISIS also claims).  
Monday  21 September 2015 / Hour 1, Block C: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com, in re: Xi to arrive in Seattle, have state dinners, incl with H Kissinger, at hotel in downtown then conference with the Paulson Institute. WSJ says that Bill Gates will entertain Xi at his private home – an aircraft carrier on a lake? – and then on 24 Sept Xi will meet Chinese people on West Coast; then on 25 Sept will fly to Washington to dine at the White House. On 26 Set, Xi in New York City at the UN GA.  Most important to Xi: mtgs with tech leaders, as he tries to get the Bill Gateses and Tim Cooks to lobby the White House not to sanction China for its gargantuan cybertheft.  The thief lobbies the victims to help the thief escape.  In Washington, Xi wants photo ops.  Typical of Xi's arrogance, also that he thinks the Chinese mkt is so attractive the foreigners will simply accept whatever.  HuaWei is taking Apple's mkt from Apple – oops. PLA hacked Apple badly.  Beijing trying to vampirize massive extra taxes to help HuaWei and other Chinese firms. 
- Xi Jinping is set to visit the White House on September 25, but of course he will be getting up to much more during his time in the US. We've got the lowdown.
September 22
The Seattle Times reports that Xi will arrive in Seattle and attend a banquet during the evening at the Westin Hotel in the downtown area of the city. Here he is expected to give a policy speech at a gathering attended by dignitaries including the former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.
September 23
Xi will attend a roundtable hosted by the Paulson Institute, comprised of 15 US CEOs and 15 Chinese CEOs. Later he will reportedly visit Boeing's headquarters and tour its Everett factory. That evening the Wall Street Journal claims that he is set to have dinner with Bill Gates at his private home.
September 24
Xi will meet with members of the Chinese community on the West Coast at a private gathering. He will then visit Lincoln High School in Tacoma alongside his wife Peng Liyuan. The city of Tacoma is twinned with Fuzhou, capital of Fujian province where Xi spent much of his early career. Later that day, Xi will make the trip to Washington DC.
September 25
The highlight of the trip. Obama will host Xi at the White House. A joint press conference will be held in the Rose Garden. With any luck he will be offered more than a Big Mac at the state dinner.
September 26
Xi will travel to New York.
September 28
South China Morning Post says that Xi will attend the 70th United Nations General Assembly and give his debut speech.
Monday  21 September 2015 / Hour 1, Block D:  LouAnn Hammond, DrivingtheNation, in re: Head of VW NA made remarks that ripped through the markets: allegations and now concessions that VW tampered with the regs for air pollution in the US, for years. Michael Horn, head of VW North America, has profusely apologized; Martin Winterkorn, head of VW globally, will stand for a vote of confidence, or not, at the end of the week.  Last time: Kaiserschlacht in 1918. Specific device to defeat emissions test for diesel cars in California. 
 
Hour Two.
Monday  21 September 2015 / Hour 2, Block A: David Drucker, Senior Congressional correspondent, Washington Examiner; and John Fund, National Review Online;  in re: Scott Walker withdraws from candidacy for the presidency.  Mrs Drucker worked for Scott Walker; is a star of the GOP now probably looking for another job.  Where does the Walker muscle go?  Some to Marco Rubio – NH and SC – and maybe Iowa.  Look for Walker bundlers and donors turning toward Rubio, who's running a lean and disciplined operation.  maybe John Kasich will get a second look, although he and Walker have different approaches to governance, What's driving it is: Who can win? What did not happen for Scott Walker? Not a disciplined or precise campaign – too many things to too many people.  Hired 90 people, burned through an awful lot of money. Nine more debates to come, next at the end of October. Carly Fiorina was startling in handling a wide range of questions and had 30% less air time than the businessman from New York, but made an excellent impression on America.  If she can harness this new energy and run the gauntlet of pressure coming at her, then she's got a shot. Seems to be the most aware of the political process.  Wholly missing from GOP till now: a suitable female presidential candidate. Focussed, driven, articulate. The worst to say of her is she doesn't smile enough.  Dem-leaning women have gone from 71% down to 42% in supporting Clinton.  Previously she was seen as a very interesting VP choice but she's put that in the rear-view mirror. 
Monday  21 September 2015 / Hour 2, Block B: John Fund, National Review Online;  and David Drucker, Senior Congressional correspondent, Washington Examiner; in re: Banquo's ghost of a Dem candidate – Joe Biden.  Mrs Clinton knows that Biden will run; the sharpening of the knives has begun. Clintons will monitor Biden; first, he'll [help knock out Bernie Sanders]; if they need to go after him it'll be scorched earth. She has 35% of the vote in her camp.  A historic food fight within the party. Biden's entrance will be a vote of no-confidence in Mrs Clinton; he's hearing from enough insiders abandoning camp.  Woodstock's Götterdämmerung.  Biden constitutes the only White House-approved alternative to Clinton.  If Biden roils everything a lot, then GOP will have an excuse not to think about electability.  Will give a boost to Bush candidacy.
Monday  21 September 2015 / Hour 2, Block C:  Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: Moscow in Syria can be destabilizing if it arms Hezbollah; or if R servers to prevent an all-out clash in Golan, cd be helpful. Deploy multiple air-defense systems – some very effective – will bld mil outpost in Latakia, incl ground-pounder planes vs assymetrical warfare.   . . .   "Deconflict" – used anent Syria:  When Ash Carter & Russian counterpart spoke used this word.  Bibi Netanyahu as accompanied by highest-level mil staff. Israel much wants to avoid an accidental confrontation. Asked abt Russian leverage on IRGC (Iranian) on Golan Heights; Putin presents Russia as the cop on the beat?  Looks sort of like it.  When Assad was strong, he kept the Syrian Golan border quiet and Lebanon was problematic; now that Hezbollah in Lebanon is strong, the problem has moved to Syria.  John Kerry warns Moscow ("Clearly [Russian] aircraft . . .  raise serious question") while US allies are in Moscow speaking of keeping the peace as much as possible. France reverses position, no longer demands that Assad be out.  Moscow isn't exactly in a listening mode vis-à-vis the US; Putin says, there are a million Jews who . . . Will we see Russian generals and American generals in Tel Aviv at the Israeli Pentagon? 
Monday  21 September 2015 / Hour 2, Block D: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: Mahmoud Abbas, the one-time president of the Palestinian Authority.  May say he's setting aside Oslo Accords; not that he'll retire.   Seems to have changed his message.   Gaza situation deteriorating and West Bank up in tumult - boulders thrown at cars; 500 attacks this year). Gaz a rockets fired at S'derot and Ashkelon. S'derot is so close, the Iron Dome defense system can't work; instead, a rocket hit a home and a bus.  A new ISIS affiliate, a Salafist brigade, claimed credit for shooting the rockets.  Egypt flooded the tunnels from Sinai to Gaza – no smuggling, drugs, the normal misbehavior, Pumped water from the Med without announcement; many smugglers caught unawares.  Suitcases of money going from Iran to Hamas [?].  Iran "sampled" Parchin – the pantomime; took the samples with no IAEA person present; delivered it to IAEA inspector to examine. Absurd.  IAEA officials are loudly criticizing the mode.  Is Iran acting aware that the Russian enforces have shown up and Iran can't rumble through Syria the same way? 
 
Hour Three
Monday  21 September 2015 / Hour 3, Block A:  Mary Kissel, WSJ, in re: Opinion Journal: An Anti-Capitalist Pope? Former Ambassador to the Holy See Jim Nicholson on the pontiff's economic philosophy, the poor and the promise of America.
Monday  21 September 2015 / Hour 3, Block B:  Mary Kissel, WSJ, in re: Opinion Journal: Vetting Ben Carson  Editorial Page Editor Paul Gigot on the anti-establishment presidential candidate's comments about Islam, and more..
Monday  21 September 2015 / Hour 3, Block C:  Richard A Epstein, Chicago Law, NYU Law, Hoover, in re: The Consequences of Obama's Weakness It has now been just over one year since President Barack Obama delivered a confident White House address explaining how the United States and its partners would be able to counter the Islamic State—which, in 2014, he claimed was neither Islamic nor a state. A year later, as we mark the fourteenth anniversary of September 11, ISIS is still very much Islamic and ever more entrenched as a rogue state. Obama’s 2014 speech about ISIS paved the way for the political and humanitarian crisis that we are now facing one year later. There are no surprises here: Bad consequences follow when a United States President thinks that he can counter forces of terrorism and world disorder on the cheap without the use or threat of ground forces.
His mistake was evident, even at the time. He told us “what the United States will do with our friends and allies to degrade and ultimately destroy the terrorist group known as ISIL.” The word “ultimately” said it all. There was no urgency, no timetable for success, no awareness that the individuals who are being raped, killed, and terrorized cannot afford to wait for “ultimately.” They have to survive immediate threats, and a promise to “degrade” an enemy someday is no promise of assistance at all. His speech was an unambiguous signal to these people that they are on their own.
If the ends in question were too timid, the means chosen to realize them are too weak. There is no way in which sporadic airstrikes, however well conceived, will be able to counteract terror that operates on the ground every hour of every day. Yet the President told his enemies all they needed to know when he stated that “we will not get dragged into another ground war in Iraq.” Or, he might have added, in Afghanistan, Syria, or any other place where innocent individuals are slaughtered.
Given Obama’s rhetoric, our enemies know that they have a clear field of operation. The stirring words that the President will “hunt down terrorists who threaten our country, wherever they are,” carried with it two dangerous caveats, both realized. First, he was not prepared to hunt down terrorist who threatened millions of other innocent lives. His speech was to the voters of the United States, not to the millions elsewhere who have no one else to whom to turn. Second, he also signaled unambiguously that he would not use ground forces as part of his hunt. The pathetic support measures that he addressed were doomed to failure from the outset. Without American leadership and planning on the ground, the effort to fight a proxy war is doomed. The military debacles in Syria and Iraq come as no surprise. “Too little, too late” is not a viable foreign policy. . . .  [more]  (1 of 2)
Monday  21 September 2015 / Hour 3, Block D: Richard A Epstein, Chicago Law, NYU Law, Hoover, in re: The Consequences of Obama's Weakness (2 of 2)
 
Hour Four
Monday  21 September 2015 / Hour 4, Block A:  Noah C Rothman, Commentary magazine, in re: Walker’s Collapse Isn’t Trump’s Fault.    Obama Throws Hillary Under the Bus The central mission of Barack Obama’s White House in the waning days of his administration is to . . 
Monday  21 September 2015 / Hour 4, Block B:  Michael Ledeen, FDD, in re:  The Pope of Montecristo  The story of Cuban cigars is a good metaphor for the failure of Communist tyranny, and I think it’s shameful that the first Jesuit pope in history apparently intends to talk mostly about the weather instead of freedom. So Pope Francis, having delivered himself of the usual Jesuit diatribe against capitalism and warned us all about rising global temperatures, has arrived in Cuba.  That unhappy island inhabits a time-space warp that was formed in the 1960s, a world where the political slogans and the automobiles are relics of a failed tyranny, which offers pretty girls for rent to tourists with hard currency, and which continues to peddle its once superb cigars to the unwary.
Yes, I’m going to warn you about Cuban cigars.  Back in Camelot days, Cuba produced the world’s best cigars.  JFK smoked them, as did his press secretary, Pierre Salinger.  It was said at the time that the president instructed Salinger to obtain a huge stash of cigars from the vuelta abajo in order to beat the imposition of the embargo.  I always believed that story, and I’ve got a footnote for it.  Years later, when Salinger was working as a reporter for ABC News in Paris, we had lunch one day and he showed me his personal supply of his personal Cuban cigars:  they had a “Pierre Salinger” band (as I recall, they were Churchills from Partagas).
Americans have been forbidden to import Cuban cigars ever since, but this is apparently about to end as one of the elements of Obama’s deal with the Castros. When I heard the pope was headed for Havana, I wondered if the Castros were planning to give him a box of “Francis” cigars. And I also wondered if anyone had briefed him on the current state of Cuban cigars. Which is, let us say, not what it once was.
I spend a fair amount of time in Europe, where there is no Cuban embargo, and thus you can buy all the Cuban cigars you want. I’ve had some, but for the most part I’ve given them up. The Dominicans and Nicaraguans are much better cigars nowadays. The great Cuban cigar makers brought tobacco seed with them when they fled Castro’s tyranny, and over the course of the past half-century . . . [more]
Monday  21 September 2015 / Hour 4, Block C: Gregory R. Copley, author of  UnCivilization: Urban Geopolitics in a Time of Chaos, in re: Rivers of migrants; enormous population and civilizational changes that will alter continents. (1 of 2)
Monday  21 September 2015 / Hour 4, Block D: Gregory R. Copley, author of  UnCivilization: Urban Geopolitics in a Time of Chaos, in re: Rivers of migrants; enormous population and civilizational changes that will alter continents. (2 of 2)
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