The John Batchelor Show

Monday 22 September 2014

Air Date: 
September 22, 2014

 

Photo, above: Yemen Shiite rebels seize government HQ, PM resigns    Yemen’s Houthi rebels seized control of cabinet headquarters in Sana’a as clashes showed no sign of letting up even after the United Nations envoy said he brokered an agreement to end the crisis.

Prime Minister Mohammed Salem Basindwah resigned today, Al Jazeera said, without saying where it got the information. Houthis captured the cabinet building and a military camp guarding the state radio offices in the capital, Mohammed Abdulsalam, a Houthi spokesman, said on Facebook.

Text below is from New Delhi Television/NDTV with gratitude, and YemeNFox.net:   Yemeni Shiite rebels were said to be close to agreeing Friday to sign a deal to end deadly fighting north of the capital with Sunni fighters of the Islamist Al-Islah party.

Here is a backgrounder on political-military groups in Yemen:

- Ansarullah

Also known as Zaidis and Huthis after their leader Abdelmalek Badreddin al-Huthi, the Shiite rebels have been at war with the government since 2004.

They are concentrated in the rugged northwestern mountains where the Shiites are a majority in otherwise Sunni-majority Yemen.

The Huthis have complained of marginalisation since the rule of now-toppled autocratic president Ali Abdullah Saleh.

Ansarullah demands the resignation of the government, a say over the appointment of ministers and access to the sea.

Initially its rebellion sought to defend Zaidism, a branch of Shiite Islam, because of an increased Sunni presence in northwest Yemen.

Saada, the Huthi stronghold, is the birthplace of Zaidism, founded in 898 by the creation of a politico-religious regime dubbed the Zaidi Imamate toppled in 1962 by a military coup that established the republic.

- Al-Islah

The Sunni Islamist Al-Islah (Reform) party was one of the pillars of power under former president Ali Abdullah Saleh.

However, in August 2011 it switched to the opposition, forming a coalition with six other parties in a united front against Saleh who bowed out in January 2012.

The conservative Al-Islah draws its support and membership mainly from heavily armed Sunni tribesmen, and it is highly influential within the country's armed forces.

In recent fighting with the Huthi rebels north of the capital Sanaa, Al-Islah fighters were supported by the army.

- Al-Qaeda

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula was formed in January 2009 as a merger of the Yemeni and Saudi branches of Al-Qaeda, and is seen by Washington as the most active branch of the jihadist network.

It took advantage of the weakness of the central government during the anti-Saleh uprising in 2011 to seize large swathes of territory across the south and southeast.

Also active in central Yemen and east of Sanaa, AQAP has launched many deadly attacks on the armed forces and symbols of central authority, including in the capital itself.

Al-Qaeda's first known attack in Yemen dates back to 1992, when bombers hit a hotel that formerly housed US Marines in the southern city of Aden, killing two non-American citizens.

In 2000, an Al-Qaeda suicide attack on the naval destroyer USS Cole in Aden killed 17 US military personnel.

AQAP is led by Nasser al-Wuhayshi, a Yemeni who tunnelled his way out of prison in 2006 along with 22 other militants. His deputy is a Saudi, Said al-Shihri, who was freed from Guantanamo Bay by the United States in 2007.

- The Southern Movement

The Southern Movement is an umbrella group in the region that belonged to former South Yemen, which was an independent state until 1990.

It brings together groups with diverse demands ranging from social and economic equality with the north to complete secession.

Some members of the Southern Movement advocate armed force to achieve their aims, but their operations have been limited in scope.

The government's plans for a six-region federation in Yemen to address the grievances of the regions have been rejected by both the Shiite rebels and southern separatists.

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

The New York Times Iraq-ISIS Conflict in Maps, Photos and Video

Co-host:  Thaddeus McCotter, WJR, The Great Voice of the Great Lakes.

Hour One

Monday  22 September 2014  / Hour 1, Block A: Thomas Joscelyn, Long War Journal senior editor, & Bill Roggio, Long War Journal and FDD, in re:   Al Nusrah Front is al Qaeda. Only difference is that one asserts a caliphate and the other doesn't.  Part of ongoing battle between Nusrah and Hexbollah.  With ISIS took control of a number of hostages; has now executed two Lebanese. Did not release an official video of the executions.   Shows one hostage being shot with, to his right, the Lebanese officer now threatened to be killed.

Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan; Pakistani military since mid-June claim to be targeting various al Qaeda groups, incl claim a thousand kills; but so far have named only one person, a senior leader.  Jamaat al-Arhar(?) Groups knew of the campaign coming so all top leaders have long since left – probably gone to other tribal agencies and left the rear guard to fight. It’s a target-rich environment; Pakistani military could carry on a successful campaign daily if it wanted to. North Waziristan.

Tom Joscelyn testified to the House Subcommittee on Eurasian Affairs. 

Europe: we could see coming down the pike the dangers to Europe (as well as to Africa and many other theaters).  The scale of events is significant.  Washington elite try to pretend were not in a global war – which in fact we are.  ISIS has the will to capture and declare an Islamic state:  unsurprising since it's heir to groups that have been making the same claim for over eight years.  "Strategic retreat" –  the US pulls out as though it was safe to do so, but all this will spiral out of control

Monday  22 September 2014  / Hour 1, Block B: Thomas Joscelyn, Long War Journal senior editor, & Bill Roggio, Long War Journal and FDD, in re:  Al Q midlevel and high leaders released from Teheran after _______.   Clear that al Qaeda and Iran had a secret deal. One of the docs at ObL's home: ___ is mentioned by a midlevel leader to be released; in the event, probably let out in 2009 or 2010. 

Video purporting to show that al Q killed a Pakistani ISI.  New branch formed earlier this month.  Responded to press reports: "We'll liberate the Muslims of India, but start with Pakistani army, which is oppressing Muslims in Pakistan."   Arif Rafiq says there's clear evidence of penetration at the officer level of the Pakistani navy. The frigate they (al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent)  targeted carries surface-to-surface antiship Cruise missiles. Had they succeeded in overcoming the ship, they could have attacked a US warship in the Indian Ocean, which they said was their goal. 

France has launched air strikes in northeastern Syria; the US has so far bowed out.   Jabaat al-Nusrah (al Q), and other al Q groups: if you put pressure on the Islamic state but not on these, all you do is free up space for al Qaeda.   Syrian Kurdistan: I'm not sure that weapons are the main issue; a lot of it is commitment.   Sure, experienced fighters in PKK in northern Syria, but ISIS fighters are seasoned and also are highly committed.

Monday  22 September 2014  / Hour 1, Block C: Victor Davis Hanson, Hoover, in re:  In the Middle East, Create a coalition by being strong and winning.  In 1940, Sweden and others wanted to join Hitler; by 1943, they all wanted separationThis minute: Announcement that "the US and allies" [BBC: "and partner nations" unnamed] are sending Tomahawk missiles over Syria.  . . .  I think leaving Iraq will be the worst strategic mistake we've made in this Administration.   . .  ,  A year ago we were going to bomb Assad; now were bombing the enemies of Assad  a mythical Syrian Free Army. Need 10,000 trainers for Kurds, plus [overwhelming] air support.  Unfortunately, the US president is politically emasculated.  We need enough air power to win and hand this off to the next Administration, ISIS's HQ in Syria.

Monday  22 September 2014  / Hour 1, Block D:  Gordon Chang, Forbes.com, in re: Students on strike in Hong Kong; Joshua Wang, wrote I Am Not a Hero, a book that's been the match that organized the students. Joshua is 17, and he is a hero.  What they all oppose is Beijing's steamrollering over the one-man/one-vote principle that was to obtain. Instead, Beijing insists on being the only entity. Hong Kongnese profoundly object.  Note change in head of garrison of PLA in Hong Kong: old guy said not to have been tough enough so they brought in someone harsher.  HK is a very sophisticated and cosmopolitan society; hard to say they can govern themselves.  Communist Party are control freaks; and if they say Hong Kong may do so, then the people right across the river in Guangzhou  also want self-governance – as does everyone in the country.

Hour Two

Monday  22 September 2014  / Hour 2, Block A:  David M Drucker, Washington Examiner Senior Congressional correspondent, & John Fund, National Review Online:  Saudi Arabia, Jordan, UAE and Qatar have joined the US in Tomahawk strikes on Syria (Raqqah - not an enemy city; an occupied city enslaved by ISIS; those hits will be innocent civilians) .  Military says it'll be an hours-long campaign.  Human shields being held there.   American public wants actions; expect blowback. Why is the military telling the enemy how long the bombing will last? First strikes the US has launched in these years. How will it affect     Washington Post: "It didn’t take long for the Islamic State to exploit the weaknesses of this president; and the US has let down the Kurds."  Critics include Leon Panetta, the Joint Chiefs, and others of his former associates.    Sending Tomahawks is clearly an effort to get ahead of his critics; also, it’s good policy.   . . . Kremlin: "Strikes should not have been launched without the consent of the Syrian government."

Monday  22 September 2014  / Hour 2, Block B: David M Drucker, Washington Examiner Senior Congressional correspondent, & John Fund, National Review Online, in re:   Pres Obama will be at the UN to explain his policy. "Better that he have a deed to point to rather than [just jawboning]." has been sensitive t naysayers in his own policy and didn’t want to look like a wartime president.  The incongruity of what res Obama will say at he UN – war over Syria and sunny weather over Iraq?  Dichotomy; incongruity.    Tweet:  "US fighter jets sold to Gulf to fight Iran now used for  fighting ISIS with which Iran is at war."   Iran heaving a sigh of relief for no longer being he center of attention. 

 

Correx? "All foreign partners participating in the strikes with the United States are Arab countries, a senior U.S. military official told CNN. Those nations are Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan."

Monday  22 September 2014  / Hour 2, Block C:  Bud Weinstein, SMU, Bush Institute, and saxophonist, in re:  We’ve had a prohibition on the export of crude oil since the 1970s.  Members of Energy and Commerce Committee would like to repeal this, but much pushback from greens, plus misunderstanding: "If we export oil, that'll push up domestic prices" – which is not accurate; it’s a world price.  Also, 60% US growth in the last three years.  US production is up so much that OPEC doesn't call the shots any more; we do.  People ask: If we import oil, how can we export it?  It’s just anther commodity .  People's climate march, tens of thousands of marchers; one lone guy carrying a sign, "I love fossil fuels."  US is number-three oil-producing county in the world; in a few years, will be number one. 

Monday  22 September 2014  / Hour 2, Block D:  Mary Anastasia O'Grady, Wall Street Journal OPINION AMERICAS, in re: Bill Clinton Spins His Haiti Intervention  Aristide now under house arrest in Port-au-Prince for corruption.  While Aristide was living in Georgetown, he was in control of the $50 million [from telcos] to get restored to power in Haiti in 1994.

Hour Three

Monday  22 September 2014  / Hour 3, Block A:  Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: Raqqah airstrikes:  a tweeter Abdul Kadr Hariri saw it 30 min before Pentagon reported. "Sky is filled with drones." A hundred thousand or more Kurds fleeing – to Iraq, Syria, Turkey.   Erdogan did not participate in the US-plus-Gulfies fight,  Turkey is fighting Kurds.   Got back 40 hostages being held in Mosul by ISIS; thought that Turkey traded with a promise not to join the coalition Onslaught of 100K refugees – 60K on Sunday!  Nine miles from Turkish border - - miles and miles to be under ISIS control on ht Syrian side Kurds have little ammunii0tion  UN speaks of Turkey's failure to close its border to IS export of fuel, getting a billion dollars a year. Why not bomb the trucks carrying the oil?    ISIS has captured another bank in the last few days.    Exported oil going to Syria (which while it’s doing this is also fighting ISIS), through Kurdish middlemen through Turkey toward he world.  Right now, SIS is shelling using artillery stolen from Iraq. Kurds have nothing to fight this with.   This is a massacre  , Early on we could have bombed them and closed the border,  In Anbar, suicide bombings today. ISIS captured the eqpt. Iraqi army found seven rockets with poison gas.  "Shock without the awe" – in no ay have we suppressed ISIS's ability to fight. ISIS has tanks, artillery, mortars – heavy stuff; cannot be fought from the air.   ISIS has now again threatened to kill civilians of countries that join the fight in opposition to the Houthis have been fighting Saudi Arabs more than the Yemeni govt, which is now collapsed.  Have been capturing more and more area; today control everything from Sanaa northward.  Yemen controls the Straits!  Strategically vital to solving AQAP.   Beheadings of civilians, How long can Oman last?   Arab Bank: ruling against the bank, that hey knowing supported terrorism by transferring money to Hamas and other accounts. Victims of 24 attacks in 2000 and 2004.  One hour earlier Second US Court reversed a ruling, approved that suits vs National Westminster, part of RBS.  Abu Mazan wants to take over Gaza. Hamas yesterday raided the Bank of Palestine in Gaza City, took $750,000 in cash.  UN mtg on reconstruction – but can't keep getting construction if they keep destroying.  UN wants 500 monitors to oversee distribution of concrete and other goods.

Monday  22 September 2014  / Hour 3, Block C:  Richard A Epstein, Hoover Institution, Chicago Law, in re: Universities' divesting of their energy stocks.   EPA's original error in seeking to control the input of energy companies instead of the output – that is, it’s impossible to regulate scrubbers, say how to build a plant, and he like. However this gives the EPA a lot more control; it can micromanage.    (1 of 2)

Monday  22 September 2014  / Hour 3, Block D: Richard A Epstein, Hoover Institution, Chicago Law, in re: Universities' divesting of their energy stocks.   EPA's original error in seeking to control the input of energy companies instead of the output – that is, it’s impossible to regulate scrubbers, say how to build a plant, and he like. However this gives the EPA a lot more control; it can micromanage.    (2 of 2)

Hour Four

Monday  22 September 2014  / Hour 4, Block A:  Olivia Katrandjian, NYT Retro Report, in re: police SWAT teams were created to quell unrest in Los Angeles in the 1960s and now are the beneficiaries of heavy-duty military equipment from the federal government.

Monday  22 September 2014  / Hour 4, Block B: Eli Lake, senior national security correspondent, Daily Beast, in re:  Amb Samantha Power says training "moderates" in Free Syrian Army is under way.  Michael Nagata is in charge [of Special Ops for CENTCOM]; he's a special operations officer who came of age in the War on Terror and has much experience in Iraq, for CENTCOM, for humanitarian relief n Pakistan.  Is highly regarded – in tradition of McChrystal, Petraeus, Mc Raven.  Had a role in CIA in Jordan in 2012.  Problem: no plane to send a US trainer in with troops after they finish training in Saudi Arabia -  to be sure the weapons don’t wind up in wrong hands, as well as to keep track of [the war].  Last week, Martin Dempsey may advise [boots on the ground].   These guys have Assad as number-one target, whereas the US is training them to fight ISIS.   Three bases in Saudi and Jordan (not yet signed-off on) to train 1,800 a year vs. an ISIS force of 30,000; it'll be a patrol-scale force against a huge army.   Maybe be deployed as a second phase in Syria, but  . . . . Pres Obama has brought two critics, one from inside, one from outside  - Nagata and Allen – inside the tent.

Monday  22 September 2014  / Hour 4, Block C: Eric Trager, Washington Institute, in re:   Hagel spoke with Egyptian Minister of Defense Colonel General Sedki Sobhy to deliver 10 Apache helos to Egypt to support antiterrorist work. Pres Sisi in New York at the UN. Egyptians won’t get involved in Iraq till the US "fixes the mess in Libya"  Egypt is getting help from the Emiratis.   Has a 600-mi porous border with Libya, militants entering, attacking Egyptian forces and have made their way even to Gaza.    Egypt may provide some support but not manpower.    Egypt will host a conference on rebuilding Gaza under auspices of the Palestinian Authority. [Not likely to keep having rebuilding conferences if it keeps tearing things up.]  Relations between US and Egypt has been on ice for 15 months; Pres Obama stays cool.  Moslem Brothers seeking sanctuary in Turkey.   Muslim Bro; Turkey is more or less its last refuge.. Al Sisi: "The Muslim Brotherhood is history."  Two week ago in Sinai jihadis beheaded two Egyptians.     ISIS is inspiring copies all over the world.   US needs to assure that ISIS cannot be a world model of conduct./   President Obama Should Meet with Sisi

Monday  22 September 2014  / Hour 4, Block D:   Dr. David H. Grinspoon, Distinguished Visiting Scholar in Astrobiology, Library of Congress, in re:  NASA’s Newest Mars Mission Spacecraft Enters Orbit around Red Planet   NASA’s Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN) spacecraft successfully entered Mars’ orbit at 10:24 p.m. EDT Sunday, Sept. 21, where it now will prepare to study the Red Planet’s upper atmosphere as never done before. MAVEN is the first spacecraft dedicated to exploring the tenuous upper atmosphere of Mars.