Thursday 10 December 2020

Air Date:

December 10, 2020

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Colleague : Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents

Hour One
On the Road to Baku.  Thursday 10 December  2020  / Hour 1, Block A: Elliott Abrams, @AbramsElliott, and Malcolm Hoenlein, @conf_of_pres, in re: Iran, Latin America, Yemen, Syria. Maduro is claiming total power in Venezuela after the recent fraudulent election.  The one branch he didn’t claim was he parliament.  Venezuela is becoming a regional threat by sending out masses of refugees to neighboring countries—Guyana, Brazil, et al.; while Maduro has invited in Iran. China, Russia.   Iranian missies in Venezuela can reach the US; we’ll intercept them on sea and land.
     JCPOA:  Length of time.  Also, missiles that can reach Europe, incl space-launched.  Also, Iran’s support for terrorism and subversion across the Middle East. These are the reasons for the maximum-pressure campaign. Iran is delighted to see Trump leave, but is not confident about Biden.   Fakhrizadeh is gone.  His critical files were removed and seem to have gone to Israel.
     Colombia is at risk because of the Venezuelan air force and drug trafficking, plus the movement of so many millions of people.
Elliott Abrams is the Special Representative for Iran and Venezuela at the Department of State. He was senior Fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, D.C., from which he is now on a leave of absence. He served as deputy assistant to the president and deputy national security advisor in the administration of President George W. Bush, where he supervised U.S. policy in the Middle East for the White House.

On the Road to Baku. Thursday 10 December 2020 / Hour 1, Block B: David Pollock, @David_Pollock, @Washington Institute, and Malcolm Hoenlein, @conf_of_pres, in re: KSA-Israel, KSA-Qatar (new polling). Morocco’s recognition of Israel: the price of admission, so to speak, was for the US to recognize Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara. Saudi Arabia: Jews have been prevented even from entering the kingdom, this is a step forward at the popular level, where half or more of Saudi citizens approve peace with Israel. Expect a warm peace with a lot of visiting religious dialogue. Now even direct flights from Israel to Morocco rather than dog-legs through Paris. Our poll was complete in November, reflects a really big shift in Saudi and UAE just in the last few months. Really rapid and positive shifts in public opinion.
David Pollock, the Bernstein Fellow at The Washington Institute, focuses on the political dynamics of Middle East countries. He is the director of Project Fikra, a program of research, publication, and network-building designed to generate policy ideas for promoting positive change and countering the spread of extremism in the Middle East.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/israel-morocco-agree-to-normalize-rela...

On the Road to Baku. Thursday 10 December 2020 / Hour 1, Block C: Mohsen Sazegara, @sazegara, and Malcolm Hoenlein, @conf_of_pres, in re: Foreign sabotage, Iran domestic politics. First, I send my greetings to everyone around the Caspian Sea. It’s previous name was Ayran, still reflected in family names. I knew the person who introduced Fakhrizadeh to the IRGC; Fakhrizadeh was in charge of Iranian nuclear program. Not a scientist but a manager. Targetted killings like this are almost always inside jobs. He was assassinated because of his responsibilities. Local cameras were off during the operation. Govt is trying to deny an intell breach, but no one believes that. Govt offering Hollywood-type explanations that exculpate them from being unable even to figure out such a killing 60 km from Teheran. The Council of Guardians under the thumb of the Supreme Leader ratifies any candidate. They don’t always do good cop-bad cop. With $70 bil blocked, and he needs at last $10 bil to feed terrorism worldwide, esp in Venezuela, he’s trying to make a short-term deal.
Mohsen Sazegara is an Iranian journalist and pro-democracy political activist. Dr. Sazegara held several high-ranking positions in the Government of Mir-Hossein Mousavi, such as deputy prime minister, minister of industry, deputy chairman of the budget and planning department, and many more before becoming disillusioned with the government in 1989 and pushing for reforms. He applied to become a candidate for President of Iran in the 2001 election but was declined.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-flag-thank-you-mossad-sign-appear-i...

On the Road to Baku.  Thursday 10 December  2020  / Hour 1, Block D: Malcolm Hoenlein, @conf_of_pres, Conference of Presidents, in re:  . . . Some accepted Hellenist ways; first battle for religious freedom. Hanukkah: one vial of oil lasted eight days, which is why we have a menorah with eight candles.  Netanyahu is starting his own political party; Blue and White, led by Benny Gantz, have joined him. Israelis do not enjoy having so many elections, which become destabilizing.  However, they have serious security challenges and the economic burden is large, but they also don't want the incertitude.  In Morocco, which has just normalized relations with Israel, the king is tolerant, changed educational policy and led to public acceptance.  This brings Egypt and North Africa into the fold, and [gives cover] to Saudis.    Nobody in Morocco knew it was coming.
       The UN is funding massive illegal activities among Palestinians. All hopes about UN reform not transformed into action.

Hour Two
On the Road to Baku.  Thursday 10 December  2020  / Hour 2, Block A:  Victor Davis Hanson: @VDHanson; Hoover Institution, and The Case for Trump,in re:    FDA votes to approve the vaccine as early as Friday. It won’t heal the disunity.  Pfizer said it wouldn't play politics—and withheld its announcement till four days after the election. Hunter Biden. The Chinese espionage news, with Eric Swalwell. The whole landscape seems to be [of a piece]. The virus is dangerous to 1% of the population, yet the whole country is locked up, will be for a year.
Children are inheriting zoom screens and cancel culture. I’m grandfather to a special-needs child who’s regressed years in these months.  We’ve paid a terrible price in the novel voting. The scars of 2020.  We can heal, but we elected someone whose supporters don’t think he can [perform his duties].
On the Road to Baku.  Thursday 10 December  2020  / Hour 2, Block B:   Conrad Black, @ConradMBlack, publisher, littérateur, biographer, commentator; the National Post; in re:  FDR was constantly in the news and irritated many. Have we just lived through a similar time?  Mmm—FDR was a suave, patrician gentleman. He did have the working press on his side, was a publicly charming man.  He entered office with a vast mandate to solve a terrible crisis: there were machine gun nests in Washington, stock exchanges and banks had been closed for may days; he had the support of journalists if not publishers.   . . . FDR clamed to be strictly neutral , but extended territory to a thousand miles across the Atlantic, and offered lend-lease to allies.  My guess is that Trump would have won this election had he not been sandbagged by the media.  He’s still the most popular person in the US.
On the Road to Baku.  Thursday 10 December  2020  / Hour 2, Block C:  Robert Zimmerman, BehindtheBlack.com; in re:  Starship excitement.  It's big, reminds me of a 747, seems to lumber through the air. For Starship, it was one of the slowest. Its engines are so powerful it needn’t go fast.  In return, it hit the landing pad perfectly, but insufficient engine power to slow it down enough, so it crashed on arrival. But all good. A ninth prototype ready to go in less than a month.  Elon Musk moved from California to Texas. Hayabusa: turned out very well. American scientists will get to see samples from the asteroid, which comes form he early Solar System, and lets us begin to set out the timeline of the Solar System, maybe line up events with asteroids.  Israel’s Beersheeba1 but failed, but will try again in 2025, an orbiter and two landers Company is a nonprofit, is seeking funding from the UAE.  Sunspots: last month was the most active since 2017, when the solar minimum began.
On the Road to Baku.  Thursday 10 December  2020  / Hour 2, Block D:  Chris Riegel: @Scala, @STRATACACHE; in re:  They’ve been re-energized by the perception that you can do it better outside of China, Drawdowns of inventory.  Samsonite is an example: travel bans and tariffs haven’t hit it very hard, so it has an inventory shortage.  Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia. Not yet highly value-added product (electronics) yet, but soon.  China has excellent infrastructure for trade; smaller countries are trying to compete.  South Korea has them for TV panels and smart phone production.   With Biden coming to the table as a new entity . . .   China’s water is contaminated. ADM: corn, wheat, sorghum.  US has to get better at bldg trade relations that are favorable two ways, not just one-sided.
      Pandemic gives us a chance to create major changes.  There are still fundamental challenges around intellectual property and fair trade.  Global trade will have a very good year.

Hour Three
On the Road to Baku.  Thursday 10 December  2020  / Hour 3, Block A: Elliott Abrams, @AbramsElliott, and Malcolm Hoenlein, @conf_of_pres, in re: Iran, Latin America, Yemen, Syria. Maduro is claiming total power in Venezuela after the recent fraudulent election.  The one branch he didn’t claim was he parliament.  Venezuela is becoming a regional threat by sending out masses of refugees to neighboring countries—Guyana, Brazil, et al.; while Maduro has invited in Iran. China, Russia.   Iranian missies in Venezuela can reach the US; we’ll intercept them on sea and land.
     JCPOA:  Length of time.  Also, missiles that can reach Europe, incl space-launched.  Also, Iran’s support for terrorism and subversion across the Middle East. These are the reasons for the maximum-pressure campaign. Iran is delighted to see Trump leave, but is not confident about Biden.   Fakhrizadeh is gone.  His critical files were removed and seem to have gone to Israel.
     Colombia is at risk because of the Venezuelan air force and drug trafficking, plus the movement of so many millions of people.
Elliott Abrams is the Special Representative for Iran and Venezuela at the Department of State. He was senior Fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, D.C., from which he is now on a leave of absence. He served as deputy assistant to the president and deputy national security advisor in the administration of President George W. Bush, where he supervised U.S. policy in the Middle East for the White House.

On the Road to Baku. Thursday 10 December 2020 / Hour 3, Block B: David Pollock, @David_Pollock, @Washington Institute, and Malcolm Hoenlein, @conf_of_pres, in re: KSA-Israel, KSA-Qatar (new polling). Morocco’s recognition of Israel: the price of admission, so to speak, was for the US to recognize Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara. Saudi Arabia: Jews have been prevented even from entering the kingdom, this is a step forward at the popular level, where half or more of Saudi citizens approve peace with Israel. Expect a warm peace with a lot of visiting religious dialogue. Now even direct flights from Israel to Morocco rather than dog-legs through Paris. Our poll was complete in November, reflects a really big shift in Saudi and UAE just in the last few months. Really rapid and positive shifts in public opinion.
David Pollock, the Bernstein Fellow at The Washington Institute, focuses on the political dynamics of Middle East countries. He is the director of Project Fikra, a program of research, publication, and network-building designed to generate policy ideas for promoting positive change and countering the spread of extremism in the Middle East.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/israel-morocco-agree-to-normalize-relations-in-latest-us-brokered-deal-651742

On the Road to Baku. Thursday 10 December 2020 / Hour 3, Block C: Mohsen Sazegara, @sazegara, and Malcolm Hoenlein, @conf_of_pres, in re: Foreign sabotage, Iran domestic politics. First, I send my greetings to everyone around the Caspian Sea. It’s previous name was Ayran, still reflected in family names. I knew the person who introduced Fakhrizadeh to the IRGC; Fakhrizadeh was in charge of Iranian nuclear program. Not a scientist but a manager. Targetted killings like this are almost always inside jobs. He was assassinated because of his responsibilities. Local cameras were off during the operation. Govt is trying to deny an intell breach, but no one believes that. Govt offering Hollywood-type explanations that exculpate them from being unable even to figure out such a killing 60 km from Teheran. The Council of Guardians under the thumb of the Supreme Leader ratifies any candidate. They don’t always do good cop-bad cop. With $70 bil blocked, and he needs at last $10 bil to feed terrorism worldwide, esp in Venezuela, he’s trying to make a short-term deal.
Mohsen Sazegara is an Iranian journalist and pro-democracy political activist. Dr. Sazegara held several high-ranking positions in the Government of Mir-Hossein Mousavi, such as deputy prime minister, minister of industry, deputy chairman of the budget and planning department, and many more before becoming disillusioned with the government in 1989 and pushing for reforms. He applied to become a candidate for President of Iran in the 2001 election but was declined.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-flag-thank-you-mossad-sign-appear-in-iran-after-nuke-scientist-killed/

On the Road to Baku.  Thursday 10 December  2020  / Hour 3, Block D: Malcolm Hoenlein, @conf_of_pres, Conference of Presidents, in re:  . . . Some accepted Hellenist ways; first battle for religious freedom. Hanukkah: one vial of oil lasted eight days, which is why we have a menorah with eight candles.  Netanyahu is starting his own political party; Blue and White, led by Benny Gantz, have joined him. Israelis do not enjoy having so many elections, which become destabilizing.  However, they have serious security challenges and the economic burden is large, but they also don't want the incertitude.  In Morocco, which has just normalized relations with Israel, the king is tolerant, changed educational policy and led to public acceptance.  This brings Egypt and North Africa into the fold, and [gives cover] to Saudis.    Nobody in Morocco knew it was coming.
       The UN is funding massive illegal activities among Palestinians. All hopes about UN reform not transformed into action.

Hour Four
On the Road to Baku.  Thursday 10 December  2020  / Hour 4, Block A:  Victor Davis Hanson: @VDHanson; Hoover Institution, and The Case for Trump,in re:    FDA votes to approve the vaccine as early as Friday. It won’t heal the disunity.  Pfizer said it wouldn't play politics—and withheld its announcement till four days after the election. Hunter Biden. The Chinese espionage news, with Eric Swalwell. The whole landscape seems to be [of a piece]. The virus is dangerous to 1% of the population, yet the whole country is locked up, will be for a year.
Children are inheriting zoom screens and cancel culture. I’m grandfather to a special-needs child who’s regressed years in these months.  We’ve paid a terrible price in the novel voting. The scars of 2020.  We can heal, but we elected someone whose supporters don’t think he can [perform his duties].
On the Road to Baku.  Thursday 10 December  2020  / Hour 4, Block B:   Conrad Black, @ConradMBlack, publisher, littérateur, biographer, commentator; the National Post; in re:  FDR was constantly in the news and irritated many. Have we just lived through a similar time?  Mmm—FDR was a suave, patrician gentleman. He did have the working press on his side, was a publicly charming man.  He entered office with a vast mandate to solve a terrible crisis: there were machine gun nests in Washington, stock exchanges and banks had been closed for may days; he had the support of journalists if not publishers.   . . . FDR clamed to be strictly neutral , but extended territory to a thousand miles across the Atlantic, and offered lend-lease to allies.  My guess is that Trump would have won this election had he not been sandbagged by the media.  He’s still the most popular person in the US.
On the Road to Baku.  Thursday 10 December  2020  / Hour 4, Block C:  Robert Zimmerman, BehindtheBlack.com; in re:  Starship excitement.  It's big, reminds me of a 747, seems to lumber through the air. For Starship, it was one of the slowest. Its engines are so powerful it needn’t go fast.  In return, it hit the landing pad perfectly, but insufficient engine power to slow it down enough, so it crashed on arrival. But all good. A ninth prototype ready to go in less than a month.  Elon Musk moved from California to Texas. Hayabusa: turned out very well. American scientists will get to see samples from the asteroid, which comes form he early Solar System, and lets us begin to set out the timeline of the Solar System, maybe line up events with asteroids.  Israel’s Beersheeba1 but failed, but will try again in 2025, an orbiter and two landers Company is a nonprofit, is seeking funding from the UAE.  Sunspots: last month was the most active since 2017, when the solar minimum began.
On the Road to Baku.  Thursday 10 December  2020  / Hour 4, Block D:  Chris Riegel: @Scala, @STRATACACHE; in re:  They’ve been re-energized by the perception that you can do it better outside of China, Drawdowns of inventory.  Samsonite is an example: travel bans and tariffs haven’t hit it very hard, so it has an inventory shortage.  Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia. Not yet highly value-added product (electronics) yet, but soon.  China has excellent infrastructure for trade; smaller countries are trying to compete.  South Korea has them for TV panels and smart phone production.   With Biden coming to the table as a new entity . . .   China’s water is contaminated. ADM: corn, wheat, sorghum.  US has to get better at bldg trade relations that are favorable two ways, not just one-sided.
      Pandemic gives us a chance to create major changes.  There are still fundamental challenges around intellectual property and fair trade.  Global trade will have a very good year.