Tuesday 21 October 2014
Photo, above: Sweden’s Submarine Hunt Is an Ominous Sign of Growing Tension Between Russia and Northern Europe Over the weekend, Sweden launched an Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) operation for the first time since the Cold War. Although the government prefers to call it, euphemistically, an intelligence-gathering effort, Sweden is vigorously searching for a suspected Russian submarine far inside Sweden's territorial waters near Stockholm.
The Swedish armed forces claim to have made three credible observations of "foreign sub-surface activity" over a 72-hour period, and Sweden's largest daily broke the news that Swedish signals intelligence had also intercepted emergency communications, hinting at a submarine in distress, between Kaliningrad (the headquarters of Russia's Baltic fleet) and a transmitter somewhere in the Stockholm archipelago. At the same time, a Russian merchant vessel, the NS Concord, was reported as lying just outside Swedish territorial waters since last Wednesday, as if waiting for something or someone. The Swedish ASW operation comes right after the end of the multinational naval exercise Northern Archer, where Swedish, Danish, Polish, and Dutch frigates, submarines, and jets practiced, among other things, how to combat a submarine threat. I'is not far-fetched to think that . . . [more]
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-host: Larry Kudlow, CNBC senior advisor; & Cumulus Media radio on the weekends
Hour One
Tuesday 21 October 2014 / Hour 1, Block A: Phil Izzo, WSJ lead editor, Real Time Economics blog, in re: the price of oil – in the lower $80s; this effectively constitutes a tax cut you didn’t know about. A $20 drop in the price of both US light sweet and Brent crude – it’s good for everyone but the share prices of some oil producers. We've almost doubled the US oil production from 5mil to 9mil Bbl/day – we're outpacing the Saudis: a positive supply shock. Improves everyone's purchasing power. To make wind & solar economical; need $150/Bbl; to meet shale, $50 or $60/Bbl. This prices out most of the exotic fuels. This also undermines Vl. Putin: to meet his budget he needs $150/Bbl in Brent crude. [Question: Bloomberg/Tom Keene suggest a much lower number?] . . . We can still worry that not enough people are looking for work – the participation rate is near a forty-year low; otherwise, it's a positive report in the US; the worrisome factors are overseas. . . . Wages have been flat for yeas; a lot of slack in the job market, but I think it'll change. Inflation is low, and the drop in oil process acts as a spending boost. I know that Europe is stagnant, The fact that it’s not growing is several decades old. Didn’t stop us from rising in the 1980s and 90s. Our most important trade partners for import/export are: 1/3 exports to Canada and Mexico. This global downturn does not stop US rising. Richard Fischer, head of Dallas Fed: We have 550 mil people in NAFTA, a much bigger GDP than does Europe; Canada was growing, even Mexico was for a while.
Video: Unemployment Rate Ticks Up in July July unemployment rates tick up from 6.1% in June to 6.2%. Wages rise slightly, but not in line with inflation. WSJ's Josh Zumbrun and Phil Izzo join Simon Constable on the News Hub to discuss. Fed Boosts View of Economy; Surgeon General: Stop Tanning, Prevent Skin Cancer the Federal Reserve's rate decision. Acting Surgeon General Dr. Louis Lushniak looks at the rising occurrence of skin cancer.
Tuesday 21 October 2014 / Hour 1, Block B: Phil Izzo, WSJ lead editor, Real Time Economics blog, in re: Yellin talks dovish but in fact is that she's basically continuing Bernanke's policies. LK: I'm an inflation hawk, see no reason to raise rates. . . . I think the Fed would love a little cover from Congress so it can start raising rates. Even low rates are stimulative; but we’re at zero so we have no powder in case of need. Only option we have now is bond-buying. The ten-year Treasury is [universally] thought to be the safest place in the world. The dollar rally helps the Fed: calms any nascent inflation pressures that might develop in the next six months – and attracts capital from around the world. LK: Yellin talks dovish, but she's ending QE and I give her credit for that!
Despite Uncertainty, Fed Holds Steady The Fed is likely to end its bond-buying program this month even as market volatility and uncertainties about the global economy have rattled investors and led to some mixed messages from central-bank officials.
Tuesday 21 October 2014 / Hour 1, Block C: Bill Whalen, Hoover Institution, in re: . . Colorado. Iowa. Kansas. Greg Orman going down and Pat Robertson going up – two brilliant campaign ops sent and put on the ground, many major GOP personages travelled there to help. Jonathan Soros held a fundraiser for Greg Orman. Arkansas: Mark Pryor is considered a worthy adversary; Dems have handled the race poorly. . . . North Carolina: Kay Hagen spent a lot to go oppo on Thom Tillis. She's vulnerable on security. Her secret is tons of money from superpacs. Her current problem is ebola: she flip-flopped – opposed and now favors a travel ban. Clinging to a 2-pt lead. GOP has hired a "tech guru" to target some races? Hope it's going into the ground game. If the RNC hasn’t done a better job in turnout in this round, then shame on them.
In a statement following the debate, North Carolina Republican Party Chairman Claude E. Pope, Jr. slammed Hagan for failing to participate. “Senator Hagan works for the people of North Carolina – and they expect her to show up for work. Tonight, she had an opportunity to answer questions about her ‘stimulus’ payday, her Ebola travel ban flip-flop, and her decision to skip a classified briefing on the Islamic State for a fundraiser on Park Avenue. She had an opportunity, at long last, to lay out a positive vision for growth and jobs. She did not," Pope said, going on to praise Tillis for his performance.
• A Friday Buffet: Cash, Contagion and D.C. Upside Down
• Turns Out Turnout Turning for the Worse
• 21 Days to Go: 21 Election Fun Facts
Tuesday 21 October 2014 / Hour 1, Block D: Bill Whalen, Hoover Institution, in re: Debbie Wasserman-Schultz – chair of DNC – has irritated her colleagues with sloppy speech and an effort to get he Party to pay for some of her personal wardrobe expenses. Her successor will probably be a Party elder who favors Obama (not Clinton). Harry Reid? If the GOP wins overall, there'll be pressure to move him aside - ______ is the Camilla Parker-Bowles here. Need a food-taster. Nancy Pelosi: ten years the Speaker of the House, is 75 years old, time to step aside; does she know that? Nope. If you give the GOP another 10-13 seats in the House, then the Dems will take three giant steps to the left. Bill de Blasio is currently the Sandinista wing, but he whole Party will become that. Jarrett: never make anyone a Minister without Portfolio She wanders from meeting to meeting, then visits privately in the White House I the evening – who knows hat she ay. This president is surrounded by [yes-men]. Apparently the First Lady and the First Man don’t speak to each other - Jarrett many be the only communication means for them.
• Time to Start Thinking Democratic Shake-up?
• Hillary and the Big Blue Bubble
• For Republicans: Michigan Senate Blues
• Diva Watch: Babs, HRC Make a Money Pitch
• A Friday Buffet: Cash, Contagion and D.C. Upside Down
Hour Two
Tuesday 21 October 2014 / Hour 2, Block A: Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton professor Emeritus; author: Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War, & The Victims Return: Survivors of the Gulag after Stalin; in re: In upcoming elections in Ukraine, 40% of the electorate won’t vote. Poroshenko's coaliti0n showing about 30% - not a majority, but the largest bloc in the parliament. All the others are far-right-wing nationalist parties and will be kingmakers in Poroshenko's obligatory coalition. Europe has demanded that these elections not occur in Eastern Ukraine as that would probably lead toward a division into two countries. . . . Sikorsky: Warsaw is appalled. Sikorsky was the architect of the NATO-Eastern partnership, in 2008; was supposed ot be only politics and economics, bit lo a back door into NATO. This set off the Kiev demos, then the civil war, then the proxy war, then the new Cold War. He was fired; then recruited a US author who put an article in Politico blaming all Sikorsky's enemies; said Putin once discussed the possibility of the partition of Ukraine, and this suggests that Poland was complicit. The new Polish PM who fired Sikorsky: "I won’t let a rift develop between Poland and Germany because of Sikorsky's policies. "
Russia and Ukraine failed to reach an accord on gas supplies for the coming winter in EU-brokered talks on Tuesday but agreed to meet again in Brussels in a week in the hope of ironing out problems over Kiev's ability to pay. (1 of 4)
Tuesday 21 October 2014 / Hour 2, Block B: Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton professor Emeritus; and author; in re: . . . Ukraine owes Russia $5 bill ion for gas already shipped, and Russia refuses to send any more till it's repaid. Some deal was worked out; Putin reduced the debt to about $4 billion, also dropped the price to $100 less per unit – but Ukraine is bankrupt. Putin said, "It's time for Europe to stand up and pay and prepay for the gas that both Ukraine and Europe want." Russia says that the EU must pay, at $385 per unit. If winter comes and Putin doesn't ship – btw, it has to go to underground pressure tanks and be shipped by the first week of November. Europe probably wants the IMF to pay –which is US money; thus you and I are to pay for that gas. . . . Unintended consequences of the Ukr crisis: the splintering of different factions in Europe; resentment in Europe toward the US will grow as the temperature drops.
Novak: EU must undertake to guarantee Ukraine’s payment of debts for Russian gas (2 of 4)
Tuesday 21 October 2014 / Hour 2, Block C: Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton professor Emeritus; and author; in re: intelligence-gathering. . . . While we were in Moscow [last week], my wife, Katina vanden Heuvel, secured a long interview with Edward Snowden, who turns out to be kind of interesting character. Undoubtedly our intell svcs know who shot down the Malaysian airplane. John Kerry immed said that the Russians had [done it]; now we have data suggesting strongly that the Ukrainian army had a Russian BUK – the Russians almost surely did not do the shootdown. The amount of intelligence that's being kept from us is stunning – done for political reasons. Human Rights Watch is calling for investigations into war crimes by the Ukrainian army: 19 impacts of cluster munitions. SFC: There have been calls for investigations into [litany recitation of crimes]; nothing has happened. If ht White House of New York Times, or the European parliament wanted and investigation, there would have been one, Lavrov said, Russia seems to be the only country that wants to investigate any of these crimes (3 of 4)
Tuesday 21 October 2014 / Hour 2, Block D: Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton professor Emeritus; and author ; in re: The BND, German security service, releases info showing that the BUK probably was shot by Ukraine, . . . the hawkish factions – Poland, the UK, and others, have been trying to get Sweden to join NATO. Finland prospered best during the old Cold War; now hawk-factions to strengthen NATO and take it close to Russian borders . . . There are real hawks in the Kremlin, but Putin is not one of them. The sub that Sweden is looking for. Moscow Kreml hawks tell Putin: their goal is to overthrow both you and the whole Russian system. No doubt that Russia has made a large military build-up incl nukes. Has doubled production of missiles. (4 of 4)
Hour Three
Tuesday 21 October 2014 / Hour 3, Block A: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: During Ebola Crisis, Cuomo Says US Should Consider Banning Some Flights Andrew M. Cuomo said on Monday that the federal government should contemplate banning some flights in response to the Ebola outbreak in . . .
Tuesday 21 October 2014 / Hour 3, Block B: Paul Gregory, Hoover; in re: Paul Gregory's version of the letter that Obama must write to Putin as a bill of particulars and a statement of actions to be taken. With this open letter, Obama could salvage the last two years of his presidency on the foreign policy front.
Tuesday 21 October 2014 / Hour 3, Block C: Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review & Pirates fan, in re: Democrats are in trouble because Obama has done too much that people didn't like — namely, ObamaCare. If he'd handled other things better, Republicans still would be campaigning on ObamaCare; in fact, it remains the No. 1 vote-driver, although Republicans haven't mentioned it in TV ads for months. [more]
Tuesday 21 October 2014 / Hour 3, Block D: Seb Gorka, Marine Corps University & Breitbart, in re: http://www.newsweek.com/2014/10/31/damaged-submarine-spotted-swedish-waters-russia-turns-baltics-278694.html
Hour Four
Tuesday 21 October 2014 / Hour 4, Block A: Jillian Kay Melchior, National Review Online, in re: The Corner: 'My Best Friend Was Sold Into ISIS Sex Slavery'
Tuesday 21 October 2014 / Hour 4, Block B: Francis Rose, Federal News Radio, in re: WSJ: Botched VA Firings Symbol of Obama Administration Incompetence, Lack of Accountability “Defining Dismissal Down,” The Wall Street Journal. Senior VA Officials Misled Public on Massive Health Care Backlog VA misled public, vets on health care backlog,” The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Two Years after Deadly Outbreak, One Year after Bad IG Report, Pittsburgh VA Director’s Firing Put on Hold “Pittsburgh VA director gets more time to appeal firing recommendation,” Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. VHA Workforce Management HQ Hotbed of Fear, Retaliation “Topeka VA human resource office locked in battle mode,” The Topeka Capital-Journal
Tuesday 21 October 2014 / Hour 4, Block C: Aaron Klein, KleinOnline and Salem Radio Network, in re: The Times on Monday reported the Obama administration is seeking ways to cut Congress out of any nuclear deal with Iran by relieving sanctions via White House executive order. [more]
Tuesday 21 October 2014 / Hour 4, Block D: Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, China to launch two payloads to the Moon The competition heats up: On Thursday China plans to send a capsule on a mission around the Moon and back to Earth to test its heat shield. Solar minimum to limit interplanetary manned flights? A new study suggests that the increased cosmic radiation reaching the inner solar system because of the Sun’s weak sunspot activity will increase the exposure to dangerous radiation levels for interplanetary astronauts, thus limiting mission lengths to about one year.