The John Batchelor Show

Tuesday 22 January 2019

Air Date: 
January 22, 2019

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-host: Larry Kudlow, Director of the National Economic Council under President Donald Trump.
 
Hour One
Tuesday 22 January 2019 / Hour 1, Block A:.  Elizabeth Peek, TheHill and Fox News, in re:  Chinese economy; world economy
Tuesday 22 January 2019 / Hour 1, Block B:   Elizabeth Peek, TheHill and Fox News, in re: Kamala Harris.
Tuesday 22 January 2019 / Hour 1, Block C:   Larry Kudlow, in re:  Davos:  has lowered the global economic forecast for 2019. At the same time, the US is an island of prosperity: pursuing pro-market incentives but deregulating lowering taxes; have set the stage for the best investment environment in the world, growing at 3%. Other countries don't want to follow in our path.  Pres Trump has presented them with the blueprint: Let business be business, let entrepreneurs run. But Europe is suffering from sclerosis. I speak with world leaders who say the right things but don’t implement.  Money is flowing to our strong dollar, low tax rate, deregulations.
Germans are very effective at making money, but are doddering. Virtue signaling? Europe is a very protected area:  tariffs are too high, they repel foreign direct investment, which instead is coming to the US.
We’re in the middle of negotiating with Daimler, Volkswagen and BMW. We have lower emissions standards, tax rates, coming on board with our USMCA. They're leaving Germany – Chancellor Merkel is brilliant but not getting the job done.  France, Italy, can't get back to old-fashioned free-market capitalism.
China is faltering, can't generate a consumer culture. Has nothing to do w trade negotiations; rather, Xi Jinping is forcing each corporation to have a CCP member on its boards is strangling business. The state-owned enterprises are being supported by the non-debt loans, and they lose money every single year. So much money is being allocated to the SOEs; the slump started probably twelve years ago when you look at the charts. They won't even let American companies own their companies—trying to force technology transfers. They’ve lost their investment; direct investment is leaving China. This is not the free-market spirit that dominated China for decades.
Lower US tax rates with deregulation work hand in glove: the new Trump economy is one of men and women who own small businesses and can make money for the first time in years. Manufacturing  autos, services, now the farmers are doing better in the USMCA.  When you see big German car makers move plants and assemblies to the US, that tells you something.
Tuesday 22 January 2019 / Hour 1, Block D:   Brett Arends, Market Watch, in re:
PM May: Four possibilities, a miracle and leave at the end of March; or those who voted for Brexit will be given another vote; or a hard Brexit – everything is broken, who know what’ll happen; or kick the can down the road. 
The heart of no-deal Brexit is currently the fallback option: May triggered Article 50 two w=years ago, which was dangerous. Absent a deal, on 29 March it ends. Major corporations are panicking and moving HQ.  Today here’s o majority for any of the alternatives.  Visceral divide in GB about national sovereignty.  No Middle ground. Remainers and Brexiteers are yelling at each other. Theresa May’s compromise has always been doomed.  Friend of mine runs a commercial marketing research corporation, thus not politically biased. He’s been surveying panels: since the deal went down, a strong surge of support for remaining in the EU.  “This is the mother of all messes,.”  A big breakout in the last ten days..  Betting coming in on a second referendum – but it could be as divisive as the first, and there’s debate on what questions would be asked. But the trouble with Theresa May’s compromise is that it was he best she could get out of he EU. She’s unpopular as the PM but widely respected.
The Europeans are making themselves especially unappetizing these days, Italians, French, Germans, and the “claret-swilling Eurocrats in Brussels.”
EIU do not want other countries leaving; “if you just cherry-pick the best parts of the deal, everyone would want that and we cant provide it.”  David Cameron walked off he stage leaving chaos behind.  I believe they'll have to have  delay; can withdraw their Article 50 application to leave.
 
Hour Two
Tuesday 22 January 2019 / Hour 2, Block A:  Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton professor Emeritus; American Committee for East-West Accord; author: War with Russia?; Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War, & The Victims Return: Survivors of the Gulag after Stalin;  in re:   Financial Times report that Russia is extremely active in Africa, usually trading arms for raw materials.  Russia is well in to Zimbabwe, Guinea, Zambia, Madagascar, Algeria Egypt; Lukoil is in Nigeria, Cameroon; in South Africa, Congo. Cold War 2.0.
What’ll be the legacy of Pres Trump’s administration under Russiagate?  Amazing impact on Russia: the end of Russia’s long love affair with American democracy, or the end of Russia’s illusions about America.  At present, the Russian broadcasting/media space is more open to the US than we are to Russia.  There are scores of Russian talk shows with vey high ratings that have made this one of their number on themes: the notion that there; a Russian operative in the White  House!  The Russian Internet is not restricted.  Russians ask, “If they can put an op in the White House, why can't they clean up the garbage here in my small city?” (1/4)
Tuesday 22 January 2019 / Hour 2, Block B:  Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton professor Emeritus; American Committee for East-West Accord; author: War with Russia?; Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War, & The Victims Return: Survivors of the Gulag after Stalin;  in re:  (2/4)
Tuesday 22 January 2019 / Hour 2, Block C:  Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton professor Emeritus; American Committee for East-West Accord; author: War with Russia?; Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War, & The Victims Return: Survivors of the Gulag after Stalin;  in re:  (3/4)
Tuesday 22 January 2019 / Hour 2, Block D:  Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton professor Emeritus; American Committee for East-West Accord; author: War with Russia?; Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War, & The Victims Return: Survivors of the Gulag after Stalin; in re:  (4/4)
 
Hour Three
Tuesday 22 January 2019 / Hour 3, Block A:  Robert Zimmerman, BehindtheBlack,com, in re: NASA
Tuesday 22 January 2019 / Hour 3, Block B:  Robert Zimmerman, BehindtheBlack,com, in re:  NASA
Tuesday 22 January 2019 / Hour 3, Block C:   Andrew C. McCarthy, III: National Review; was Assistant United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York; in re: Russiagate
Tuesday 22 January 2019 / Hour 3, Block D: Andrew C. McCarthy, III: National Review; was Assistant United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York; in re: Russiagate
 
Hour Four
Tuesday 22 January 2019 / Hour 4, Block A:  Ministers at War: Winston Churchill and His War Cabinet, by Jonathan Schneer and Matthew Brenher (5 of 8)
Tuesday 22 January 2019 / Hour 4, Block B:  Ministers at War: Winston Churchill and His War Cabinet, by Jonathan Schneer and Matthew Brenher (6 of 8)
Tuesday 22 January 2019 / Hour 4, Block C:  Ministers at War: Winston Churchill and His War Cabinet, by Jonathan Schneer and Matthew Brenher (7 of 8)
Tuesday 22 January 2019 / Hour 4, Block D:   Ministers at War: Winston Churchill and His War Cabinet, by Jonathan Schneer and Matthew Brenher (8 of 8)