The John Batchelor Show

Wednesday 16 May 2018

Air Date: 
May 16, 2018

Photo:   台灣魂之旗 - 誓守民主 永不退縮 Flag of Taiwanese Spirit - Defend Democracy without retreat
Co-hosts: Gordon Chang, and David Livingston, The Space Show
Hour One
Wednesday 16 May 2018/ Hour 1, Block A:   Charles Burton, professor at Brock University, in re:  Kim regime unhappy with long-scheduled, annual ROK-US mil exercises.  Bride and groom headed down he aisle toward Kim-Trump talks, and the bride hesitates.   Suddenly, China pours more money into the Kim regime, while Kim sees Xi twice in 40 days.
Kim watches Fox News! Maybe afraid that  the US intends to follow the Gaddafy scenario, and also wants more US concessions.  Meanwhile diesel prices in northern North Korea dropped dramatically in the last days – only because China pumped a huge amt more oil through the pipelines from China to DPRK. China must be taken aback that neither north nor South  Korea is eager to become subsidiary to China.  If there were North-South reunification (imagine) and North Korea became a democracy, the demonstration effect in China would be colossal – China wd be the last Stalinist Party on Earth.  The CCP would be on its way out. Even affect China’s dealing with Taiwan.  Perhaps the 12 June Singapore summit ’twixt North Korea and US may not occur?  If Mr Trump is not prepared to make enough concessions – concede on nukes and pay Kim a lot – then US prestige would be on a major downturn.  To what extent can the US offer genuine security [to a regime with such an extreme past of  frankly hideous and grotesque human rights violations]?
Wednesday 16 May 2018/ Hour 1, Block B:  Greg Scarlatoiu, Executive Director of the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, in re: Washington, Thursday, on K Street;  - Annual Conference of the Council on the Koreas. Depredations of the North Korean regime will bring them to justice soon enough.  We  hope to paint a full picture of the Korean human rights conundrum. The ultimate measure of reconciliation and peace is the impact these have on the people of North And South Korea.  Lt-Gen Raymond Ayres will give a keynote address.  Impact of the new presidency of Moon on addressing North Korean human rights. South Korea is not the advocate one would normally think or hope.  Four times this matter has been placed on UN agenda, and while ROK hasn’t actively opposed these, it certainly has [done little]. I’ve interviewed North Korean escapees; one-third if DPRK children are malnourished.  Kim wants lots of money to maintain his regime: nukes, ballistic missiles, and keeping the key elite happy by maintaining heir access to luxury items from the outside world. The regime’s strategic objectives have not changed – obtaining hegemony of the whole peninsula and, short-term, foiling the US and other Western-style governments.
Wednesday 16 May 2018/ Hour 1, Block C: Anthony Ruggiero, FDD, in re: North Korea. The gulag state. De-nuclearization. An old North Korean hand said last week on this air: “What we’re witnessing is the DRK dance to win concession s form US, ROK, etc, then go back to provocations.”  A well-worn playbook, same as his father and grandfather.     Complaining about the mil exercises, then issue a statement: DPRK not only disagrees w US definition of denuke, but is not interested in US investment in the North Korean economy.  Two mtgs between Xi and Kim; Xi is scheduled to go to DPRK again. Kim mistakenly believes he has the advantage; in fact, Trump does. Max sanctions will [bite].  North Korea not yet at its economic limit; if Trump is interested in denuke, call off the summit; “We’ll go back to our corner.”  If the Trump Adm wants to play North Korean games, the chances of failure are high. . . .  Misreading of Trump, who sees max sanctions as the model for Iran; reverse of what Kim thinks.  Bolton”: “We’ll back Air Force One on the tarmac, load it up with nukes and, after it’s in US airspace, we’ll talk.” All four of China’s big four banks have been sending money to North Korea [illegally].  Why are firms like Total leaving Iran? Because they're afraid of US sanctions – with billions of dollars’ worth of sanctions.  Unfortunately, the Japanese are still on the outside   looking in, although the Trump Adm has done a good job of engaging. Japan wants god relations with both DPRK and China.  Concerned about a less-than-ideal deal.  If the Trump Adm policy is denuclearization, then DPRK statements could have been written in the ’90s or in 2000, show that [we’re wasting our time]. By this coming Christmas: if we return to the maximum pressure campaign, then Kim is afraid he won't be able to pay his elites or run his [essential programs]. 
Wednesday 16 May 2018/ Hour 1, Block D: Gordon Chang, in re: . . . The US has yet to take the next step and resolutely take the next step with China. We  have not much time; need to impose those costs on China or we won't have a country left. China thinks that the American system won't let Trump mobilize the [gears] of American power.
Hour Two
Wednesday 16 May 2018/ Hour 2, Block A:  Alan Tonelson, independent economic policy analyst who blogs at RealityChek and tweets at @AlanTonelson, on the trade talks and ZTE; in re: The latest twists and turns of US-China trade policy. . . .  China’s 2025 program, to achieve global dominance in certain technologies [by any means necessary, including mass theft].  . . . Mrs Clinton had a long record of talking tough on China while enabling Chinese trade predations.  . . . I fear these trade talks will never end; China will cough up a few concessions.
Wednesday 16 May 2018/ Hour 2, Block B:  Rick Fisher, senior Fellow on Asian Military Affairs at the International Assessment and Strategy Center in re: Taiwan and the threat to Taiwan. China has the capability to take Taiwan now, but need logistics, airfields, ports. China already has huge barges , an army of Single Sons, to invade. However, al the needed components for an invasion won’t be totally ready till the mid-20020s — and then watch out!    .. . .  We need to put tac nukes back in theater; a fifth-gen fighter and subs for TW, and they need to bld 10,000 missies to protect themselves in the coming decade. South China Sea is the southern flank. A horrible thought of all the refugees’ fleeing southward.
China has said its recent live-fire exercises in the tense South China Sea were a warning to Taiwan, threatening to unify the self-ruled island with the mainland by force if necessary.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has intensified his country's military posture around the island nation of Taiwan, hosting a historic naval parade and other large displays of firepower in recent weeks. An Fengshan, a spokesman for China's Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, said Wednesday that these measures were intended as a message to Taiwanese officials who consider their autonomous government to be entirely independent of the leadership in Beijing.
"It is a strong warning against the 'Taiwan independence' separatist forces and their activities," An said during a press conference. "It shows our determination and ability to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity.
"We have the resolve, confidence and ability to safeguard our national sovereignty and territorial integrity and contain 'Taiwan independence' separatist activities in any form. There is no way out for 'Taiwan independence,'" he added.
Wednesday 16 May 2018/ Hour 2, Block C:  Richard Fontaine, pres, Center for a New American Security (CNAS); in re:  China
Wednesday 16 May 2018/ Hour 2, Block D: Monica Crowley, London Center for Policy Research and Fox News, in re:  Lies about Trump.   What this Administration in fact is doing. Democratic Party allegations, some of which are openly bizarre. Mueller.
Hour Three
Wednesday 16 May 2018/ Hour 3, Block A: Jonathan Schanzer, FDD, in re:  Palestine
Wednesday 16 May 2018/ Hour 3, Block B:  Dr Lara M Brown, George Washington University, in re:   Politics in Pennsylvania
Wednesday 16 May 2018/ Hour 3, Block C:  Bill Roggio, FDD and LongWarJournal, in re: Terrorism; Talban offensive in several provinces: they give battle or decline at will, meaning they're in charge.
Wednesday 16 May 2018/ Hour 3, Block D:  Bill Roggio, FDD and LongWarJournal, in re: Terrorism.
Hour Four
Wednesday 16 May 2018/ Hour 4, Block A: Michael Ledeen, FDD;    Iran
Wednesday 16 May 2018/ Hour 4, Block B: Entifadh Qanbar, President & Founder, Future Foundation; in re:  Iran in Iraq
Wednesday 16 May 2018/ Hour 4, Block C:  No Better Friend: One Man, One Dog, and Their Extraordinary Story of Courage and Survival in WWI, by Robert Weintraub
Wednesday 16 May 2018/ Hour 4, Block D:  No Better Friend: One Man, One Dog, and Their Extraordinary Story of Courage and Survival in WWI, by Robert Weintraub
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