Photo: House in israel destroyed by a Hamas rocket attack
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Monica Crowley, London Center for Policy Research, and Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents
 
Hour One
Wednesday 18 April 2018/ Hour 1, Block A: John Batchelor, Monica Crowley, Malcolm Hoenlein, in re: Travelling south to the  25-mi berm around the Gaza Strip; then north to the Druse village below Mt Hermon, separating the anarchy of north of he border in Syria from the [relative] tranquility of Israel. We saw young people in uniform with guns having a picnic. Also saw practice shooting – pop-pop-pop.  And dropping a curtain-like structure to seal off Gaza.
In 2004, we were at the Philadelphi Line. MC: I spent a lot of time with Israeli soldiers, esp a young girl who was a medic, described her work, and live-fire exercises.  As soon as the orders came in, they sped to alert.
MH:  The berm has sensors; when they detect a tunnel, they automatically release a special chemical  Huge infrastructure of cement, electricity, comms; starts well inside Gaza in a home or school; goes 30 feet below ground, is burrowed to far into Israel.
In Egypt, they flooded 1,200 tunnels, cutting off weapons for ISIS and other military activities.
The ambition of the provocations? To challenge the sovereignty of Israel. At the demonstrations most attendees are in fact Hamas fighters, with young people brought along. The rocks are hurled at high speed, are lethal. These are not peaceful demonstrations.
Wednesday 18 April 2018/ Hour 1, Block B:  Ghaith al-Omari, Washington Institute; in re: Massive berm wall along Gaza. Large provocations by the gangsters against the fence. We can expect more trouble every Friday. I’d differentiate among three different Palestinian POVs: many just go to the border every Friday because they're fed up with conditions. For Hamas, aiming to pressure Israel and Egypt (to get humanitarian aid that it’ll steal; also to warn the Pal Authority that Hamas can mobilize where PA cann0t. The PA doesn’t much mind because it keeps Israel’s focus on Hamas and lightens the focus on PA. Cynical. Unfortunately, many Palestinian civilians are caught in this.
On the first two Fridays of demos, lots of casualties. More important: many who attended for collective nationalist sentiments were unhappy to see a flood of Hamas flags, didn’t want to send their children to be injured. Abbas has been not interested in returning to Gaza, but nonetheless for a year has been increasing pressure on Gaza: shutting off electricity, educing medicines.  He can go to the UN and express outrage. More cynicism. He has no control, but is poking to see what he can get out of the demos.
Another three categories: Many Arabs see the images and of course feel emotional concern so send relief supplies. However, some countries – UAE, Saudis, et al. — realize that you cannot flirt with terrorists — except Qatar and Turkey.  The new Arab cold war: pro-Muslim Brotherhood on one side, and more moderate on the other.
Qatar has been very careful – ostensibly directs aid to projects but in fact these are not vetted, often are under control of Hamas.  Intl NGOs for US; UN for Europeans; but Qatar not.
Hamas continues to have some support – maybe 20% - in the West Bank.  But with PA mil forces, and IDF, and Jordan on the Eastern side of the border, Hamas’s ability to organize is much reduced, is ineffective. 
Abbas, in his eighties, heavy smoker, tries to maintain Palestinians as the central issue, but that’s tactical, not strategic.  Abbas has managed to ruin relations with most Arab leaders, who see him as a liar, unreasonable, untrustworthy, and unwilling to take risks in order to further the discussion.
Ghaith al-Omari, a senior Fellow at The Washington Institute; former executive director of the American Task Force on Palestine. Previously, he served in various positions within the Palestinian Authority, including advisor to the negotiating team during the 1999-2001 permanent-status talks.
Wednesday 18 April 2018/ Hour 1, Block C:  Dore Gold, Jerusalem Center, in re: The Iranian threats: what does Iran want in Syria? It’s determined to bld up a capacity to dominate the region and “wipe Israel off the map” – based on a profound ideological commitment to destroy the State of Israel.  Wants to fill the vacuum left by ISIS. Supersonic Cruise missile for shooting from the coast out to ships at sea – could change the whole strategic situation in the Eastern Med.  When Israel gets info of such a thing, that changes the naval theatre or the balance of power in the air, Israel usually acts.  Iran wants to deliver technological change, from imprecise missiles to very precise.
Russia has built up a capacity in the region that it hasn't had since the USSR: access to seaports, airports, control the Eastern Med with its ships.  Once it achieves that goal, what it wants is stability and quiet, as in chaos it could lose its achievement. Iran has totally different goals: wants to dominate the entire area and is willing to go to armed conflict to achieve that. Somewhere down the road, Russia and Iran could clash.
The Gaza Strip is an impossible area: small, overcrowded, and Hamas cannot show anything it's done for the people. When resources come in for fixing infrastructure, Hamas steals it all to bld tunnels and armaments.
Egypt: Hamas working with ISIS in the Northern Sinai.  They challenge the Egyptian army. Global implications.  In Iraq and Syria, millions of refugees poured out and into Europe, creating a massive crisis. If ISIS can transfer the conflict to central Egypt, to the Nile Valley, it will create a second wave of disaster for Europe, so we need to help Egypt defeat the remaining ISIS threat.
Hamas posed a problem to Israel because it dvpd rocket forces, which it’d got from Iran. Israel created rocket defense capabilities against those. Now, Hamas shifts to bldg. underground tunnels to send in, e.g., 8o Hamas infantrymen to a kibbutz or village and create havoc.  No one has yet defeated tunnel technology: there are tunnels from North Korea into South Korea; from Mexico into Texas or California.  However, we actually have a new antitunnel system: we can hear and detect, ad neutralize tunnels, but it's a constant struggle.
Recall that the southern US has people trying to slip in: they’re not from South America but from the Middle East.
Wednesday 18 April 2018/ Hour 1, Block D:  Patrick Clawson, Washington Institute; in re:   . . . Rouhani’s and ayatollahs’s threat that they’ll retaliate against the US-led strike on the weekend. Who’s the audience for those threats?  Usu when it attacks it doesn’t announce in advance. Here, Iran’s pride was injured by the Israeli attack, so it reassured domestic and Syrian and Lebanese audiences.
MC: I follow the ayatollah on twitter. 
PC: Khamenei has been careful about avoiding [direct fight with] the US; less so with Israel, which he sees as a flea-bite.  Perhaps stronger reaction to Israel, such as the recent drone, but more concealed against the US.  The ayatollah’s initial tweet spoke of a crime, then got weak.  Should we look for cyber, or else dynamic engagement?. . . Israel would like Russia to tell Iran to back off, but it's not clear that Russia could deliver on that.  Iranians are convinced that the US way of war doesn't work; that their mode will cause t he Israeli state to [in effect, implode from within] and cease to exist.
Patrick Clawson is Morningstar senior Fellow and director of research at the Washington Institute, where he directs the Iran Security Initiative. Widely consulted as an analyst and media commentator, he has written more than 150 articles about the Middle East and international economics and is the author or editor of eighteen books or studies on Iran.
 
Hour Two
Wednesday 18 April 2018/ Hour 2, Block A:  John Batchelor, Monica Crowley, Malcolm Hoenlein,  in re: Travelling south to the  25-mi berm around the Gaza Strip; then north to the Druse village below Mt Heron, separating the anarchy of north of he border in Syria from the [relative] tranquility of Israel. We saw young people in uniform with guns sitting on the grass in agrove having a picnic. Also saw practice shooting – pop-pop-pop.  And dropping a curtain-like structure on the Israeli side to seal off tunnels from Gaza.
In 2004, we were at the Philadelphi Line. MC: I spent a lot of time with Israeli soldiers today, esp a young girl who was a medic, who described her work and live-fire exercises.  Then, as soon as the orders came in, they sped to the alert.
MH:  The berm has sensors; when they detect a tunnel, they automatically release a special chemical  Huge infrastructure of cement, electricity, comms; starts well inside Gaza in a home or school; goes 30 feet below ground, is burrowed to far into Israel.
In Egypt, they flooded 1,200 tunnels, cutting off weapons for ISIS and other military activities.
The ambition of the provocations? To challenge the sovereignty of Israel. At the demonstrations most attendees are in fact Hamas fighters, with young people brought along. The rocks are hurled at high speed, are lethal. These are not peaceful demonstrations.
Wednesday 18 April 2018/ Hour 2, Block B: John Batchelor, Monica Crowley, Malcolm Hoenlein, in re: Today, Monica and I travelled up Highway 90 to the Galilee and thence to Golan Heights, to a large Israeli army base, that has pre-positioned armor.  Went to a Druse village, capital of Golan Heights, to where you can shout across the border; above us, a Syrian watchtower – network along the border – which is how Syria watches the civilians. [Monica saw herself being monitored and, with her bright-blonde ponytail, waved back.]  Agreed that these would not be built, but they are. UNIFIL does nothing.  From this northernmost point: staring back over the fence are not only Syria but Russia and Iran.  . . .  You feel the gravity as you stand there.
Were Israel to leave this area, Iran would immediately take over. Thousands of Iranian-backed militia are stationed an hour or two away.  Iran is bldg bases near Russian facilities to protect them from a strike by Israel.  Hezbollah has 150,000 missiles targeting Israel.  The Syrians were closely watching us today. At the actual frontier, the wandering cows are at risk.
The village was inhabited by Syrian Druse, who do not want to return to Syria as they now have a good deal of autonomy in Israel. Lots of cranes and construction; a prosperous area. However, the actual border is dangerous.
The notion of Israel leaving Golan? Once you go there to look, you see that that would be insanity. The greater threat is that Iran has 80,000 affiliated militia plus Hezbollah. Its goal is to break the inviolability of the border, to penetrate. That border has been crossed successfully by Israel to bring back thousands of Syrians, especially children, for urgent medical treatment.  Today I entered a field to pick a bright-red poppy. Monica and I, both ironists, were reminded of another battlefield.*
On the Israeli side, all the fields are under cultivation; on the Syrian side, none is.
* By John McCrae, May 1915:
In Flanders fields the poppies blow, Between the crosses, row on row That mark our place; and in the sky, The larks, still bravely singing, fly
Scarce heard amid the guns below. We are the Dead. Short days ago, We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow; Loved and were loved, and now we lie, In Flanders fields.
Take up our quarrel with the foe: To you from failing hands we throw The torch; be yours to hold it high. If ye break faith with us who die We shall not sleep, though poppies grow
In Flanders fields.
Wednesday 18 April 2018/ Hour 2, Block C: Nikolay Evtimov Mladenov, UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process; in re: We have the makings of a perfect storm, both in Israel and in the region. Three broad themes: in Gaza, a very precarious situation: humanitarian catastrophe – severe – with medical, supplies, water, electricity and other needed materials are running out; there’s also a security aspect: IEDs, provocations, people being injured and killed. Also a complicated political environment: complete blockage of PA attempts to take back control of Gaza. Very very explosive situation. Shd there be another Hamas-Israel conflict, that’ll have repercussions in the Sinai, which will get entangled in the rest of the mess we have in the region.  Our first goal is to reduce the dangers. 
We need an entirely new approach to how to handle the situation; the old approach of just dealing with the effects [reactivity] wasn’t working. We had a Washington meeting with a lot of donors a couple of months ago; we clarified that we have emergency needs that we need to address right now. A second aspect is to work very closely with the Egyptians to try to wrestle control of Gaza away from Hamas and give it to some legitimate governmental entity. This is difficult after a decade of Hamas’ controlling Gaza! We try to work w Egypt, Israel, Palestinians, the intl community.
I go into Gaza at least once a month. Unless the people there see an alternative to Hamas – a way of life, salaries, services – they won’t go any other direction. Naïve to think people wd rise against Hamas rule without being offered an alternative. We'd like to see Palestinian leadership providing these, but it’s a very tough call. We're dealing with a very difficult organization, to say the least, as they have military control within Gaza, fire rockets into Israel and use IEDs and other military matters. My fear is that the angry Gazan population may lead to an uncontrollable meltdown, a complete breakdown of order, after which Salafi activists take over. I saw this happen in Iraq; if it happens here, the implications are far-reaching: incl no only Israel and Egypt, but Jordan, Lebanon, and more.
With the Trump Adm, we have a very good dialogue on humanitarian and security considerations.
My focus is currently on the Palestinian matter; in days, we’ll convene a mtg of Lebanon, Iran Syria, to connect the dots. If you try to silo events and conflicts, you won't find a sustainable solution.   There’s a general hope in Middle East to create a moderate environment, go ’way beyond the traditional divide that’s plagued the Middle East for half a century.
Wednesday 18 April 2018/ Hour 2, Block D: Behnam Ben Taleblu, FDD; in re:  12 May is JCPOA day.  Gen Yossi Kuperwasser said: Everything is focussed on that day – how Israel, Russians and region will react. That day, Pres Trump, with John Bolton and Mike Pompeo, decide whether or not to continue participating in the JCPOA. How does the EU respond if the US withdraws?
If the US withdraws, Europe will throw a fit, go more in line with Teheran than before.  US could ask to “improve the deal.”  Might hold back on enforcement of sanctions; also could finally go after Iranian financial institutions and banks, which would change the Europeans’s calculus.  Of course, Europeans could block legislation or could create a fund for institutions that have transactions only with Iran.
The Sunset Provision:  I’d hope that a few months’ time would allow the Europeans to come around.  Don’t forget military inspections: under both US parties, agree that a ballistic missile would be the strongest Iranian nuclear weapon.    With the apparent free fall of the Iranian currency, the rial, what? It should force the hand of the Iranian govt. Govt tries to control the exchange rate with limited success.
Kremlin will try to coopt the US role as guarantor of the world order, will use UN, the Joint Commission, the Security Council, et al.    Ultimately, Russia will take a wait-and-see approach. 
I think we can get the French, Britons and possibly the Germans on board; the problem is the EU, and Federica Maria Mogherini. We need to co-opt the hearts and minds of Brussels — before the Iranians do.
 
Hour Three
Wednesday 18 April 2018/ Hour 3, Block A:  Anonymous Soldiers: The Struggle for Israel, 1917-1947, by Bruce Hoffman
Wednesday 18 April 2018/ Hour 3, Block B:  Anonymous Soldiers: The Struggle for Israel, 1917-1947, by Bruce Hoffman
Wednesday 18 April 2018/ Hour 3, Block C:  Anonymous Soldiers: The Struggle for Israel, 1917-1947, by Bruce Hoffman
Wednesday 18 April 2018/ Hour 3, Block D:  Anonymous Soldiers: The Struggle for Israel, 1917-1947, by Bruce Hoffman
 
Hour Four
Wednesday 18 April 2018/ Hour 4, Block A:  The Fall of the Ottomans: The Great War in the Middle East, by Eugene Rogan
Wednesday 18 April 2018/ Hour 4, Block B:  The Fall of the Ottomans: The Great War in the Middle East, by Eugene Rogan
Wednesday 18 April 2018/ Hour 4, Block C:   The Fall of the Ottomans: The Great War in the Middle East, by Eugene Rogan
Wednesday 18 April 2018/ Hour 4, Block D:   The Fall of the Ottomans: The Great War in the Middle East, by Eugene Rogan
..  ..  ..