JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Gordon Chang, Daily Beast, and David Livingston, The Space Show
 
Hour One
Wednesday 19 February 2020  / Hour 1, Block A: Stephen Yates, former deputy national security advisor to Vice President Cheney and currently CEO of DC International Advisory, in re:  Taiwan and the coronavirus epidemic. The current virus news in Taiwan about the virus: Taiwanese are vigilant, and indignant for having been excluded from international fora on the virus. However, they’ve successfully contained the spread, and their numbers seem to have plateaued.  Taiwan is economically very integrated into China. China is in contraction, oil demand down 20% year on year. Tsai Ing-wen keeps pointing out that Taiwan needs to [be doing major business] with other nations; rebalance investment and mfrg; new supply chains.  China is run by bullies and men who deny information; is Taiwan discussing that?  The population does, but the businesses are taking longer.  Xi Jinping’s narrative is that the virus matter is largely resolved and it’s time to go back to work.  Chinese people disagree, as does much of the rest of the world.
The KuoMinTang has been massively in favor of Mainland; right now, it’s in the throes of a competition to fill a vacant chairmanship position; this is a proxy [fight].   The tone of the discussion is different from recently, being a little more pro-Taiwan.
The National Political Report, sponsored by Scala.com
Wednesday 19 February 2020  / Hour 1, Block B: James Holmes, first holder of the Wylie Chair of Maritime Strategy at the Naval War College and blogger at The Naval Diplomat (https://navaldiplomat.com/), in re: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/us-philippines-alliance-dying-123841  Xi Jinping thinks he can simply buy off the Filipino elite, and then in effect dismantle the Philippines; however, most Filipinos will not care for that.
Wednesday 19 February 2020  / Hour 1, Block C: Gregory Copley, Defense and Foreign Affairs, in Perth, Australia; in re:  Anent the Five Eyes: Australia has emphatically said NO to Huawei; probably also New Zealand, and definitely the US has also rejected Huawei; Canada is wobbly because Trudeau is so warmly amiable to China and Xi Jinping; Boris Johnson is ambivalent.   Five Eyes have been in trouble for some time and not known it.  The agreement has been allowed to atrophy because of the massive intell flow around the countries. However, it's become largely commodified.  BoJo has tried to hedge by saying that he wouldn’t let Huawei anywhere near the UK information infrastructure – but  . . .
PRC has been threatening Australia, which is responding aggressively. Australia needed to start the process of developing bilateral intell-sharing.  In Canada, Telus says it will put Huawei in to its 5G, so we may be on our way to Three Eyes. Trudeau is unlikely to survive the next elections. The threat itself, the PRC might implode before that. Could see a rapid inflation in China; a lot of prestige is about to evaporate in the vaunted Huawel technology, as well as the emergence of other 5G providers.
Arctic region:  not only economic development, but military: Russia and China are most interested. Polar regions include the Antarctic, in which, of course, Australia and New Zealand are most interested.
PRC has been trying to insert itself as a “near-Arctic Power.”  Also been bullying their way into the Antarctic. The Trudeau govt is fragile; and he wouldn't attend the Canada-Australia Forum because of a personal antipathy to one of the attendees.
Wednesday 19 February 2020  / Hour 1, Block D: Michael Yon, Michael_Yon, East Asian reporter; in re:  Hong Kong hotels are in single-digit occupancy; travellers down over 90%. Sending staff home on unpaid, extended leave.  Not all will be able to survive in this environment; and certainly cannot service their highly-leveraged debt. Scattered small businesses won't survive.  Many of the pharmacies have been hurting since the fall, since many of their customers have been Mainlanders.  Here  in Thailand, the govt ins in a sort of denial about the virus; it controls information: someone in Phuket said he was forbidden to speak on the virus. The schools are still open. Local officials not wearing masks or glove: Teflon Thailand, but leaves the country unprepared. Back in Hong Kong, the insurgency is still very much active. And even the bureaucrats are angry at the failed Carrie Lam.  
 
Hour Two
Wednesday 19 February 2020  / Hour 2, Block A:  Jonathan Ward, author of China's Vision of Victory, in re: The coronavirus-related expulsion of three Wall Street Journal reporters from China. Forty portable incinerators have been sent to the epicenter of the virus. Why?
Xi Jinping’s narrative is that the virus matter is largely resolved and it’s time to go back to work.  Chinese people disagree, as does much of the rest of the world. Chinese leadership long have thought they can tell others who may and may not publish what. Sure that it can control the world narrative on the coronavirus. China’s system is incompatible with the modern world. Thinks it can unleash a billion people on the world and thereby control the planet by the year 2049. It’s lost its image of invincibility.  Why did Xi stay n Beijing for pho-ops while Li Kai-ching went to the heart of the virus. https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-expels-three-wall-street-journal-reporters-11582100355:
Wednesday 19 February 2020  / Hour 2, Block B: Curtis Ellis, policy director of America First Policies.org and senior policy advisor on the 2016 Trump campaign, in re: It’s that smarty guy named Tim Cook who built the supply chain that’s totally dependent on Communist China.  The Apple Board of Directors needs to require that Apple source goods from ’way outside China.  Genius.   Btw, Long Beach port is 80% down in containers.  Soon, Americans will be unable to buy such simple things as, for example, toilet paper. Two years ago, Pres Trump started sounding the alarm, yet we saw the geniuses at he top of our major companies act as though it’ll all go away, revert to “normal.”  Let’s hope that this virus will constitute a wake-up. We’re speaking of the good of the country, not just that of some corporations.   https://www.wsj.com/articles/commentary-supply-chain-risks-from-the-coronavirus-demand-immediate-action-11582054704
Wednesday 19 February 2020  / Hour 2, Block C: Brett Arends,  Market Watch, in re: Coronavirus and the markets.
Wednesday 19 February 2020  / Hour 2, Block D:  Veronique de Rugy, Mercatus Center, in re ; Bloomberg and the wealth tax.
 
Hour Three
Wednesday 19 February 2020  / Hour 3, Block A:  Salena Zito,  @SalenaZito, Washington Examiner, New York Post, in re: Bellwether Pittsburgh, 2020
Wednesday 19 February 2020  / Hour 3, Block B:  Salena Zito, @SalenaZito, Washington Examiner, New York Post, in re: Bellwether Pittsburgh, 2020
Wednesday 19 February 2020  / Hour 3, Block C:  John Prideaux, The Economist US political correspondent, @JohnPrideaux,  in re: Buttigieg in America
Wednesday 19 February 2020  / Hour 3, Block D:  John Prideaux, The Economist US political correspondent, @JohnPrideaux,  in re: Buttigieg in America
 
Hour Four
Wednesday 19 February 2020  / Hour 4, Block A:  The Sugar Season: A Year in the Life of Maple Syrup, and One Family’s Quest for the Sweetest Harvest, by Douglas Whynott 
Wednesday 19 February 2020  / Hour 4, Block B:  The Sugar Season: A Year in the Life of Maple Syrup, and One Family’s Quest for the Sweetest Harvest, by Douglas Whynott 
Wednesday 19 February 2020  / Hour 4, Block C:  A Serial Killer in Nazi Berlin: The Chilling True Story of the S-Bahn Murderer, by Scott Andrew Selby
Wednesday 19 February 2020  / Hour 4, Block D:  A Serial Killer in Nazi Berlin: The Chilling True Story of the S-Bahn Murderer, by Scott Andrew Selby